“When people find out what this is—and when they find out Eyman is behind it—support erodes dramatically,” Shadel said, noting Eyman’s many previous tax-cutting efforts. Shadel said most newspaper editorials and many business leaders oppose the initiative. “We’ve been encouraged by that.”

Eyman’s website argues, “Property taxes keep going higher and higher and government keeps getting bigger and bigger. The people are losing control.”

The Seattle Chamber of Commerce opposes I-1033 as “a truly bad idea [that] puts a straitjacket on revenue during the recession.”

In both states, voters may get lost in the clutter of multiple initiatives on the ballots. Both Maine and Washington have equally controversial gay marriage referenda on their ballots, which could drive turnout but is also making it difficult for opponents of the TABOR initiatives to get their message to voters.

“The competition for other issues on the ballot has taken the spotlight off of this,” Kelleher said of Question 4. “We’re very concerned.”

Maine voters rejected a similar TABOR measure in 2006 by 8 percentage points, but a recent poll showed voters in favor this year.

In Maine, proponents of Question 4 argue that government spending has kept growing even while private sector jobs have shrunk. “It has grown far beyond taxpayers’ ability to pay for it,” David Crocker, head of the TABOR Now campaign, told the Bangor Daily News.

AARP officials are hoping that older voters will have an outsize impact on these initiatives, because they are more likely to vote, especially in off-year elections. In 2008, voters 50 and older made up 49 percent of Washington voters and 44 percent of the Maine electorate.

“In any election the senior vote is important, but it’s particularly important in an off-year election,” Shadel said. “So it’s really critical that the older voters get out for the election—and vote no.”

Opponents of TABOR point to Colorado for warning signs. Colorado passed a TABOR initiative in 1992, but the subsequent restriction on government revenue collection led to declines in job growth, prenatal care and education funding. Alarmed voters in 2005 passed a five-year moratorium. It ends next year, when voters will again decide for or against TABOR.

For more information about the Washington initiative, visit:

• Vote No on I-1033 coalition website;

• I-1033 sponsors website;

• Secretary of State’s website, which has the text of Initiative 1033.

For more information about Question 4 in Maine, visit:

• Vote No on TABOR website or the Maine Center for Economic Policy website;

• Maine Heritage Policy Center, sponsors Question 4, website;

• Maine Elections Commission website for the text of Question 4.

Neal Thompson is an author and freelance writer living in Seattle.

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