The New-Look Congress: What Changes Can It Accomplish?

Democrats tightened their grip on Congress by just enough to raise the nation’s expectations that they can do great things and fulfill president-elect Barack Obama’s hopes, but economic reality may intrude on their dreams of dramatic achievements.

The Democrats increased their margins in both the Senate and House but fell short of some predictions. In the Senate, the six sure seats they gained helped to bring their majority to at least 57. They’re still in the hunt for the 60-seat majority that would make them filibuster-proof but would have to sweep all three races that remain undecided.

In the House, Democrats also increased strength, but not by the 30 seats some had forecast. They gained 19 seats—five remain in play—putting their majority in the vicinity of 255 seats, a big enough margin to push through much legislation.

The changes in Congress provide a solid working majority for president-elect Obama, who will have to calculate just how much he’ll try to get done in the early months of 2009, when his power will be the greatest.

Economic policy will, by necessity, top the agenda. And the Iraq and Afghanistan wars may go in a new direction under the newly strengthened Democrats and Obama. The new president will be under tremendous pressure to make good on his other promises as well–a new look for health care, new education policy and new environment/energy policy, just to name a few.

But as former President George H.W. Bush once put it, the newly elected Democratic majority will have “more will than wallet.”

The financial meltdown and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left the nation with few resources. And with prospects of a $1 trillion budget deficit, the congressional agenda will be short. “We are bankrupt and that is a bigger problem than not having 60 in the Senate,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics, University of Virginia.

Of course, the new president and the new-look Congress will have an agenda.

“You can expect leadership to have a 100-hour agenda to include items they believe will be popular and somewhat easy to get through the House,” said Darryl Nirenberg, a policy director and lobbyist for Patton Boggs in Washington. His short checklist includes “health care in the form of SCHIP [the State Children’s Health Insurance Program]; energy policy attacking big oil; regulatory changes for financial institutions, such as an investor and shareholder bill of rights; and the card check legislation.”

AARP CEO Bill Novelli called on Obama and the new Congress to seize the moment and pass legislation in the mold of Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan—one who started Social Security in the 1930s and one who fixed its fiscal difficulties in the 1980s.

“As the new Obama administration transitions into the White House, and the new Congress convenes, AARP will be there to ensure that the lifetime economic security and health care needs of all Americans are being dealt with in a fair and appropriate manner,” Novelli said. “As that process begins, however, we must realize the potential of this country and the new government the people have elected is great, but will only be realized with the leadership America desperately needs.”

The Senate nears the magic number

Two Republican senators, Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina and John Sununu in New Hampshire, both lost to upstart Democrats. In the North Carolina race, older voters bucked the tide to support Dole, 72. Voters ages 50 to 64 split evenly between Dole and Democrat Kay Hagen, according to CNN’s exit polls. But voters over 65 broke 54 percent to 42 percent for Dole, not enough to pull her to victory.

In New Hampshire, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen drew a solid majority of older voters, as she did of every other age demographic, according to the exit polls. Voters ages 50 to 64 went for Shaheen over Sununu by 55 percent to 43 percent. Voters over 65 split similarly.

In Virginia, Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner wrested a seat from the Republicans by beating James Gilmore. Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith fell to Democrat Jeff Merkley. Tom Udall, a Democratic House member, won an open Senate seat in New Mexico; he’ll be joined there by another congressman, his cousin, Mark Udall of Colorado.

But in Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell managed to hold on to his seat, fending off a stiff challenge from Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford. As minority leader, McConnell will have his work cut out for him, having fewer Republicans to help fend off Democrats. He can either stand in front of the steamroller or get out of the way, at least for a while.

The undecided Senate races include Alaska, where Sen. Ted Stevens, convicted on corruption charges, is holding a slim lead over Democrat Mark Begich. Georgia Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin will have a runoff. In Minnesota, the race between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, a comedian and talk show host, is headed for a recount.

With an increased majority, Democrats, who were talking about kicking independent Sen. Joe Lieberman out of their caucus because of his support for Republican presidential candidate John McCain, probably will not pursue that course. They can afford to be magnanimous, and they might get Lieberman’s vote on many issues.

A House less divided

The Obama tide proved too strong for some well-entrenched Republicans in the House. Rep. Christopher Shays, a Connecticut Republican who had served 21 years and been praised for his independence, was swept away by Democrat Jim Himes. Analysts said a large African American turnout doomed Shays. His loss leaves New England with no Republican members of Congress.

In Ohio Democrats gained at least two seats, including that of Rep. Steve Chabot, who was seeking an eighth term. In Minnesota, Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann won a race that became close after she accused Obama of having “anti-American views.”

In Alaska Republican Rep. Don Young, who got caught up in the Stevens allegations but wasn’t indicted, leads in his race against Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. Stevens’ and Young’s leads led Sabato to proclaim Alaska “the new Louisiana,” because of the Bayou State’s record of electing those who have been accused of corruption and even served time.

Reps. Peter King of Long Island, John McHugh of the far upstate region and newcomer Christopher Lee of the western region are New York’s only surviving Republican House members. Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl lost to Democrat Eric Massa in a Southern Tier district that includes Corning. And in the Staten Island seat being vacated by Republican Vito Fossella, caught up in a drunk driving/love child scandal, Democrat Michael McMahon defeated Republican Robert Straniere, who was fighting off a lawsuit related to his hot dog shop business.

The Republican leadership in the House may also face a shake-up. Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and Minority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri could be challenged. Another member of the GOP leadership, Rep. Adam H. Putnam of Florida, won his reelection race but resigned his post as the third-ranking leader of the House Republicans, apparently sensing the handwriting on the wall.

The House Democratic victories will give Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the largest Democratic majority since Democrats lost control of the House in 1994. Pelosi, using a California analogy, said Democrats rode the Obama wave to victory. “We have surfers to ride that wave,” she said.

Elaine S. Povich is a freelance writer who covers politics.