The 50-Plus Vote: It Was the Economy, Stupid

Older voters chose Barack Obama in smaller percentages than their younger counterparts in Tuesday’s presidential election. But the jolt older Americans received from seeing their retirement account balances dive in early October narrowed the disparity predicted in early polls.

Among all voters, 53 percent chose Democrat Obama; 46 percent, Republican John McCain. Voters ages 50 to 64 favored Obama over McCain, barely—50 to 49 percent, according to a survey of voters as they left the polls. Only voters 65 and older preferred McCain over Obama, by 53 to 45 percent.

Ages 50 to 64 were a major portion of the voters, 27 percent. The exit polls showed those 65 and older made up 16 percent of the vote, less than the 18 percent of voters ages 18 to 29.

But the oldest bracket made up a larger portion of the electorate in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama won all three.

In eight states, older voters reversed the trend, casting ballots in higher percentages for Obama than the general vote, according to the exit polls. In six other states, the 50-plus vote for Obama matched the general vote.

The polls reveal a variety of influences on voters’ choices. Some voters held McCain’s age against him. Of voters who said age was a major factor in their choice, two-thirds opted for Obama. Age would have been an issue regardless, says Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida who studies older voters. But some experts say McCain’s choice of little-known Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate raised the stakes among people loath to vote for a 72-year-old when they felt his vice president wasn’t experienced enough.

Obama’s campaign message about change resonated more with younger voters than older. Older voters, more wary of the thinner resumé of a first-time senator, “have been through two of the most catastrophic events in history: the Depression and World War II,” MacManus says. “They’re more likely to vote for experience.”

Young people, in contrast, “instinctively are more willing to embrace change,” says Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute.

When choosing the most important issue in exit polls, all age groups chose the economy for the top of the list. The percentage varied only from 62 to 64 percent. The polled voters as a whole also listed Iraq (10 percent), terrorism (9 percent), health care (9 percent) and energy (7 percent).

Political analysts had wondered whether there would be an October surprise—some sort of terrorist attack that might draw voters to McCain and his foreign policy experience. Instead, Brown says, “it was a September surprise that was a financial meltdown. There’s never been an event in modern presidential campaign history as momentous in the closing 60 days.”

Republican pollster Ed Goeas of the Tarrance Group says polls showed very clearly that the market crash pushed many voters toward Obama. In September, registered voters ages 50 to 64 favored McCain over Obama by 48 to 45 percent, according to a Gallup poll. Those 65 and older favored McCain 49 to 41 percent. As retirees and those nearing retirement opened their savings statements in early October, McCain’s support among those 50 and older dropped, Goeas says.

The economy as an issue means different things to different age groups, MacManus points out. For those 50 and older their financial situation in retirement is key, while availability of jobs is important to young voters, and the ability to own and keep a house might be important to families in the middle of the age spectrum.

Obama smartly played on the concerns of grandparents. MacManus, who lives in the crucial swing area of central Florida, says a 91-year-old woman in her church, for instance, was targeted with a postcard asking her to think about her grandchildren’s economic future.

MacManus often speaks to groups of older Americans, and the concerns she heard most from them were not Social Security and prescription drugs. Instead, she says, it was, “I can live on what I’ve got, but I’m worried about my children’s and grandchildren’s economic future.”