Douglas Van Sant, Bulletin Today

Carolina/Indiana | The Other Campaign | Indianolina | Pennsylvania Showdown | The 50+ Election | April Report |  Super Tuesday: Part II | Wisconsin, Washington and Hawaii Primaries | Potomac Primaries | Super Tuesday | Florida Primary | Looking South | New Hampshire Primary | Iowa Caucuses

05|09|08 -- Weekend Update: Get Ready for the General Election

With fewer days in the Democrats' presidential nomination calendar and too few uncommitted delegates at stake, Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton are back on the campaign trail. She's heading to the five states holding primaries, and he's beginning to look ahead by seeking campaign stops in states that will be crucial in the general election.

Here are the highlights:

1. The delegate count:

	Obama	Clinton
Superdelegates	265	272
Pledged delegates	1,589	1,424
Total delegates	1,854	1,696
Needed to win: 2,025

2. The calendar:

• May 13: West Virginia (28 delegates)
• May 20: Oregon (52 delegates) and Kentucky (51 delegates)
• May 31: The Democrats' National Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to consider the validity of contested and uncounted primary votes in Florida and Michigan.
• June 1: Puerto Rico (55 delegates)
• June 3: Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates)
  

3. The delegate hunt:

Neither candidate can win nomination without superdelegates. These are the 796 state and federal office holders and party dignitaries who can make their decisions for any reason and at any time. Nearly two-thirds have, but 261 remain uncommitted. By phone, by friend and by personal visits, the two Democratic candidates are pressing the uncommitted superdelegates to pick sides. The candidates are trying presenting themselves as best able to win the White House in November.

The Democratic Party Rules and Bylaws Committee meets May 31 to discuss delegates from Michigan and Florida, where primary votes were disallowed when state officials held their primaries in February and March, earlier than allowed. Neither candidate campaigned in Florida or Michigan, but Clinton has argued that votes should be counted. Although the primaries were declared nonbinding, she outpolled Obama in Florida and won in Michigan, where she was the only named candidate on the ballot.

4. Leading indicators: Is there a following wind?

Check the outcome of another vote next week to gauge the political winds. On Tuesday, May 13, Mississippi Democrat Travis Childers challenges Republican Greg Davis to fill a 1st District vacancy. Seven-term Rep. Roger Wicker, who is filling the vacancy created by retired Sen. Trent Lott, won his last election by 66 percent of the vote. On the presidential level, George W. Bush won the district with 62 percent. But the election is seen as a tossup. On Saturday, May 3, Louisiana voters chose Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux over Republican ex-state Rep. Woody Jenkins, becoming the first Democrat to win the Baton Rouge district since 1974. Nearby, Louisiana Republican state Sen. Steve Scalise, R, defeated Gilda Reed, D.

5. Last word:

"Hang on to your hat. It's going to be one heck of a ride through Nov. 4." - Karl Rove, political guru for President George W. Bush

05|07|08 -- Time's Running Out For Clinton to Catch Obama

Sen. Barack Obama’s decisive primary win in North Carolina and narrow loss in Indiana Tuesday pushed the Illinois senator closer to the Democratic presidential nomination. But final resolution of his extended battle with Sen. Hillary Clinton hangs on three distinct factors:

• The 267 uncommitted superdelegates whose votes likely will determine the winner;

• Key primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon in the next two weeks;

• A crucial May 31 meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic National Committee to rule on the validity of contested and uncounted primary votes in Florida and Michigan.

Here’s what Tuesday’s primary results mean for the campaigns:

1. For Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The calendar and ever-smaller number of unpledged delegates are unforgiving. Clinton could not capitalize on the momentum after a 9 percent victory in Pennsylvania April 22. Instead, she was swamped, losing by 14 percent and 200,000 votes in North Carolina while scoring a very slim victory in Indiana. Clinton continued the high-energy strategy that had worked in Pennsylvania—an underdog, populist message that resonated in rural and suburban areas of Indiana and in the blue collar corners of North Carolina. But it lost some of its steam.

Looking forward, lack of campaign funds and lack of time are the Clinton campaign’s two biggest challenges. Clinton’s less-than-enthusiastic speech to her supporters on primary night underscored the harsh mathematical reality: The winner needs 2,025 delegates. She has 1,692. Clinton trails Obama by 150 delegates, but there are only 217 pledged delegates at stake in the remaining six primaries. Party rules mandate that delegates be allocated in accordance with the candidates’ share of the votes, which makes it virtually impossible for her to overtake Obama without a surge of superdelegate commitments.

2. For Sen. Barack Obama.

Last month Obama predicted he would take North Carolina while Clinton took Pennsylvania. Indiana, he said, would be the tie-breaker. Tuesday’s vote was close enough that Obama can claim a draw. He was nagged by the firestorm following the controversial statements of his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. But he gained traction with a retooled pitch to blue collar workers.

Obama faces his own challenge with primary math. Victories in states where he’s leading—Oregon, Montana and South Dakota—will leave him about 150 delegates ahead of Sen. Clinton, but about 100 short of the 2,025 he needs for the nomination.

3. For Sen. John McCain.

McCain’s victory lap continues. With the Republican nomination secure, is he making the best use of his time? McCain has bulked up his campaign staff, continued raising funds and stumped his way across the Midwest. He has spent much of the campaign cash he raised last year and is concentrating on replenishing his coffers. It’s no small task. Already this month, McCain is scheduling finance receptions and finance luncheons in seven states from New York to California. (Tickets range from $1,000 to $3,000, with a $10,000 to $25,000 per-couple price tag for photographs with McCain.)

4. Keep your eye on the ball.

The key number for Democrats is 2,025—the number of delegates a candidate needs to win the nomination. After Indiana and North Carolina, Obama has 1,842 delegates to Clinton’s 1,692. According to www.RealClearPolitics.com, a nonpartisan website, Obama’s total includes 257 so-called superdelegates. For Clinton, that tally includes 271 super delegates. Superdelegates are Democratic office holders and party officers who are given special stature in the Democrats’ selection process—the wise leaders and statesmen who can exercise discretion in an inconclusive or controversial contest. Of the 795 superdelegates, 267 have not endorsed either candidate. It’s these superdelegates who will determine the Democratic nominee. Pressure on them is mounting daily.

5. The 50+ election.

Of the Indiana primary voters, 49 percent were over 50; they supported Clinton, according to exit polls conducted by the polling combine financed by major networks and news services. Some 72 percent of the 65-plus voters supported Clinton, her margin of victory.

In North Carolina 55 percent of the voters were over 50 and they split. Of those voters between 50 and 64, Obama captured 52 percent. Clinton won 57 percent of the over 65 voters.

In both states, voters identified the economy, the Iraq war and health care as their top concerns. In Indiana voters who identified Iraq as the top issue preferred Obama; those identifying the economy and health care preferred Clinton. In North Carolina Obama won among each group.

6. Indiana. Is the squeaker a game-changer?

Clinton won with a 2 percent margin and took 36 of the 72 delegates, with 6 still undecided. Indiana was a must-win state for Clinton, and she did—barely. An Obama victory there would have complicated her effort to continue the campaign. As an Illinois senator, Obama is well known in Indiana, particularly in the northwest corner of the state (the Chicago television market). He ran well in university towns and in Indianapolis. The soft economy and 5.2 percent unemployment helped Clinton. But Indiana remains a GOP state. Republicans have won every presidential election in Indiana but one since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s last election in 1944.

7. North Carolina, a decisive victory.

Obama won by 14 percent and took 63 of the 115 delegates. About one-third of the Democratic voters were African American, and by a 92–6 percent margin voted for Obama. That was more than enough to withstand a statewide blitz to more than 50 small towns in the state by ex-President Bill Clinton. North Carolina is an increasingly urbanized state whose population is growing by 200,000 a year, mostly white professional retirees. Is this a dynamic that puts North Carolina in play in the November election? Jimmy Carter was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina, in 1976.

8. Next up.

While intensifying their pitches to uncommitted superdelegates, Obama and Clinton will return to the campaign trail for three important primaries in the next two weeks—West Virginia (28 delegates) on May 13, and Oregon (52 delegates) and Kentucky (51 delegates) on May 20.

With her well-practiced populist message, Clinton has an early lead in West Virginia and Kentucky, while Obama is leading in Oregon polls. The last three primaries are in Puerto Rico (55 delegates) on June 1 and in Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates) on June 3.

The Democratic Party Rules and Bylaws Committee meets May 31 to discuss delegates from Michigan and Florida, where primary votes were disallowed when state officials held their primaries in February and March, earlier than allowed. Neither candidate campaigned in Florida or Michigan, but Clinton has argued that votes should be counted. Although the primaries were declared nonbinding, she outpolled Obama in Florida and won in Michigan, where she was the only named candidate on the ballot. 

9. The money race.

Presidential candidates have broken all fundraising records this year, raising $800 million, and the primaries are still not over. Obama has tapped millions of new contributors. By March 31 he had raised $234.7 million and spent $183.7 million. Clinton’s campaign raised $189.1 million and spent $157.4 million. Campaign funding remains a weakness for Clinton, who continues to trail Obama in funds raised and spent. At the end of March, her campaign was also $15 million in debt, compared to Obama’s debts of $662,000. Sen. John McCain has raised $76.7 million and spent $65.1 million. He owes $707,000.

10. The last word.

“The way the loser loses will determine whether the winner wins.” Democratic Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, who has not endorsed either candidate yet, in a New York Times interview.

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05|06|08 -- Indiana and North Carolina

North Carolina and Indiana Democrats vote Tuesday in the all important presidential primaries. Sen. Barack Obama is looking to re-invigorate his campaign after a series of setbacks and tight primary finishes. Sen. Hillary Clinton hopes to prolong the contest until the last of the primaries on June 3.

Indiana
The polls: Clinton leads by as much as 10 percent in the latest polling.

North Carolina
The polls: In recent polls, Obama has a lead of between 3 and 10 percent, with Clinton closing the gap quickly.

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05|02|08 -- Who will control Congress—and by how much?

The Other Campaign
Already the public is as focused on the presidential campaign this spring as it usually is at the end of the election cycle, according to the latest Pew Research Center survey. Out of the spotlight, however, rages the campaign for Congress, which in the long run may be more important than the race for the White House itself.

Democrats now control both houses of Congress. But with the large number of Republicans retiring and a big advantage in campaign fundraising, Democrats hope to widen that lead, especially in the Senate, where the Republican minority has managed to block a host of Democratic legislative initiatives in the past two years. Here’s a closer look:

The Stakes: Control of Congress
Democrats now have a 234 to 198 advantage (with three vacancies) in the House. With 29 Republican members retiring, Democrats hope to add to that advantage. They also control the Senate. Each party has 49 senators, but two independents, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut generally vote with Democrats.

With major debate expected over the future of the Iraq war, expiring tax cuts, health care reform, the nation’s ailing public transportation system and the weakening finances of the Medicare and Social Security systems, the question of who controls Congress—and to what extent—is crucial to both parties.

The Republicans’ Challenge: Can they hold off the charge?
The battleground is the Senate campaign in 33 states. Of those seats, 21 are now held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats. That means Republicans must spread their resources over a larger area. The party’s problems are compounded by the retirement of five popular Republicans, four of them from swing states. Seats vacated by Sens. Wayne Allard of Colorado, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and John Warner of Virginia are being hotly contested. Republicans are expected to hold onto the seat vacated by the fifth retiree, Sen. Larry Craig of Idaho.

The Democrats’ Challenge: Can they tighten their grip?
Democrats hope to capitalize on the heightened interest in the presidential campaign, the unpopularity of President Bush, their ability to recruit competitive candidates and their successful fundraising. They’re focused on the vacated seats now held by Republicans. They’ve also targeted seats held by at least three other Republican incumbents—Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is under federal investigation; Norm Coleman of Minnesota, who won with a thin, 50-47 percent margin in 2002; and John Sununu of New Hampshire.

Democrats’ real goal is to close in on a 60-40 lead in the Senate, the magic number that would enable them to stop Republican filibusters.

The Money Race: The $5 billion campaign
Between the presidential campaign, the congressional campaigns and the spending of myriad special-interest organizations, campaign fundraising experts say that as much as $5 billion may be spent in this election year.

The congressional races are keeping pace. Congressional candidates have raised some $767 million, and their parties’ congressional committees have raised $267 million more. In the House, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has out-raised the National Republican Congressional Committee, $87.8 to $65 million, and it has $44 million on hand, six times as much as the Republican committee.

In the Senate, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has outdrawn the National Republican Senatorial Committee, $72.4 to $43.6 million, and has $37.8 million on hand, more than twice as much as the Republican committee.

Leading Indicator: Is there a following wind?
Check the outcomes of these races to gauge the political winds. On Saturday, May 3, Louisiana voters will choose between Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and Republican ex-state Rep. Woody Jenkins. They’re trying to replace retired Rep. Richard Baker, R, from a district in Baton Rouge that President Bush carried, winning 59 percent of the vote in 2004. But the race is considered a tossup. Nearby, Republicans are expected to hold onto the seat formerly held by Republican now-Gov. Bobby Jindal. State Sen. Steve Scalise, R, faces Gilda Reed, D.

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04|25|08 -- Next Stop: Indianolina, May 6

Indiana
Some 295 of the superdelegates are undecided. So is Indiana-born rock star John Mellencamp. Tuesday night in Evansville, Mellencamp and his band set up an Indiana welcome and rally for Sen. Barack Obama.

Not to be outdone, Sen. Hillary Clinton also booked the star to headline her May 3 rally in Indianapolis.

“He supports both candidates, meaning he will lend his presence and his music to these events,” said Mellencamp’s publicist, Bob Merlis. “But it’s not to be construed as an endorsement, per se.” He’s done this before. Four years ago, he sang at events for candidates Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Howard Dean and at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.

So what if John McCain called? No dice, said Merlis. "The Democratic Party is the agent for change [Mellencamp] has pinned his hopes on.”

The State: Population: 6.3 million
Demographics: 5.2 million whites (86%); 505,000 African Americans (8%); 214,000 Hispanics (3.5%)
The politics: There is no party registration. The state has one Republican senator and one Democratic senator. The governor is Mitch Daniels, a Republican. Democrats outnumber Republicans in its congressional delegation, 5 to 4. President Bush easily won the 2000 and 2004 elections.
The stakes: 72 delegates
The keys: This is a very split state, with heavy industry in the northwest sector and around Indianapolis and vast rural sections in the central and southern sectors. It is a younger state than Pennsylvania, with 12 percent of the population over 65, just under the national average. Obama will target the northwest sector where he is well known because of the heavy influence of Chicago. He will also target the large university communities around South Bend, Lafayette and Bloomington. Clinton will target the over-50 population and blue-collar workers throughout the state.
The polls: Clinton leads in the latest polling. But the most recent poll was taken between April 10 and April 14. Clinton led, 40-35, with 25 percent undecided.

North Carolina
The State: North Carolina is a transition state whose growth has helped it withstand the economic downturn bruising the rest of the nation.
Population: 8.86 million (2006)
Demographics: 70% white, 21% African American, 1% Native American, 4.7% Hispanic.
Workforce: 56% white collar; 29% blue collar; 14% gray collar.
Registered voters: 2.5 million Democrats (45%); 1.9 million Republicans (34%); 1.1 million independents (20%). Though Democrats outnumber Republicans, the state has two Republican senators and George Bush easily won his elections in 2000 and 2004.
The stakes: 115 delegates
The polls: There have been no recent polls. Obama led by 47% to 34% in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll taken April 10 to 14.
The keys: Clinton is well known in the state and will count on heavy turnout from the state’s growing retirement community. Obama expects support from the 21 percent of the state that is African American and the educated and affluent communities in the eastern part of the state.

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04|22|08 -- Pennsylvania Showdown

Pennsylvania Democrats vote today in the historic nomination battle between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The campaign is now a daily event in this, the nation's sixth-most populous state.

The candidates and their surrogates are criss-crossing Pennsylvania in a way that highlights its very distinct regions—cosmopolitan Philadelphia (population 1.5 million) and the east, industrial Pittsburgh (population 325,000) and the more conservative west, and the more sparsely populated and agricultural areas in between. In recent polls, Obama is favored in the eastern and southeastern sections of the state, Clinton leads in Pittsburgh, the southwest and the northeast sections of the state.

Pennsylvania remains true to its history, an industrial state (21 percent of the jobs are in manufacturing) which is caught up in today’s economic turmoil and is sensitive to candidates’ economic assistance proposals and antitrade rhetoric. The state’s growing professional class (30 percent of the state’s jobs) is concentrated in the east and northeast. Democrats outnumber Republicans, 47 percent to 40 percent, and Republican presidential candidates have not won this state since Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale in 1980. The state's senior U.S. senator is Arlen Specter, a Republican, and the junior senator is Democrat Bob Casey. Democrats control the House delegation, 11-8.

The Stakes
There are 74 Republican delegates; they will automatically vote for Sen. John McCain, who has already clinched the nomination and is now unopposed. Democratic voters in Pennsylvania will select 158 delegates to the Democratic national convention in Denver, according to RealClearPolitics, a nonpartisan political website. Overall, according to RealClearPolitics, Obama leads Clinton, 1,641 delegates to 1,503. To win the nomination, a candidate needs 2,024 delegates.

The Delegate Count
                                    Obama        Clinton
Superdelegates:             226             252
Pledged delegates:        1,415          1,251
Total delegates:             1,641          1,503
Needed to win: 2,024

The Popular Vote
Results in the Florida and Michigan primaries are in dispute, because Democrats in these states moved their primary voting dates to February, despite National Democratic Committee warnings that their votes would not be counted. Neither Clinton nor Obama campaigned in the two states. Clinton won the Florida voting; in Michigan, only Clinton's name appeared on the ballot. Efforts in both states to hold new elections have been stymied, and now state and national leaders are seeking a compromise that will allow delegates to attend the party convention, though it is unclear how their votes will be cast.

Obama Clinton
Total votes without Florida and Michigan: 13,689,293-12,861,985
Total with Florida: 14,265,507-13,837,418
Total with Florida and Michigan: 14,265,507-14,061,280

The History
Pennsylvania's primary hasn't been this important since 1976, when Jimmy Carter clinched the Democratic nomination by beating Sen. Henry Jackson of Washington and Rep. Morris Udall of Arizona. George W. Bush lost the state in the last two presidential elections. Gore beat Bush in 2000, 51 percent to 46 percent. Kerry beat Bush, 51 percent to 48 precent, in 2004.

The State
Population: 12.4 million (86 percent white, 11 percent black, 4 percent Hispanic)

Latest News
philly.com/philly/news/politics
post-gazette.com/politics/paprimary
goerie.com (Erie Times-News)
Lancasteronline.com (Lancaster Intelligencer and New Era)

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04|18|08 -- The 50+ Election

Debating Social Security

The April 16 Pennsylvania primary debate gave the nation a glimpse of the dynamics that have made Social Security such an explosive issue for decades, as Democratic contenders debated the future of the 73-year-old pension system. Just days before the crucial Pennyslvania primary, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama addressed the one question in this week's debate directly relevant to 50-plus America: Social Security finances. Obama tried to show how he'd raise taxes on richer Americans and Clinton charged that Obama was really proposing a tax hike on the middle class.

The Basics

Social Security provides $585 billion in annual benefits to nearly 50 million retirees and older Americans. The Social Security system collects $785 billion in payroll taxes from workers and employers. But with 4 million additional recipients a year and a shrinking work force, the system's financial future is in jeopardy. By 2017 the system will begin paying more in benefits than it will collect in payroll taxes. By 2034 the number of Americans over 65 will have doubled to 74 million. By 2041, according to Social Security trustees, the system will exhaust its revenues and benefits and will have to be cut by as much as one-fourth.

The Debate

Sen. Barack Obama

Obama proposes raising the cap on income subject to the payroll tax beyond the current limit of $102,000. He opposes cutting benefits or raising the eligibility age.

Sen. Hillary Clinton

Clinton has been less specific, except to propose a bipartisan commission to weigh options for strengthening the system, just as a commission led by Alan Greenspan reached a broad compromise in 1983 that slowly raised the eligibility age for full benefits and raised the level of income subject to the payroll tax.

During the debate, Obama stumbled when he said that raising the income cap was not really a tax hike. Clinton then said that lifting the cap on wages that are subject to the Social Security tax "would impose additional taxes on people who are, you know, educators here in the Philadelphia area or in the suburbs, police officers, firefighters and the like."

Obama stuck to his numbers: "Most firefighters, most teachers, you know, they're not making over $100,000 a year. In fact, only 6 percent of the population does." And according to Citizens for Tax Justice, 6.5 percent of U.S. workers overall earn more than $100,000. 

At another point, Obama said he would consider exempting income up to $250,000 per year.

The Republican

Sen. John McCain favors what he calls "personal accounts" to "supplement" the Social Security system. That differs from his endorsement three years ago of President George W. Bush's plan to divert Social Security benefits to create private accounts, an idea that was soundly thrashed in 2004 and 2005.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, McCain repeated that view. But in the same article, his chief economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, steered away from private accounts. "McCain intends to keep Social Security solvent by reducing the growth in benefits over the coming decades to match projected growth in payroll tax revenues," Holtz-Eakin said.

Coming Attractions

May 6 -- Democrats and Republicans hold important primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

04|2|08 -- The April Report

McCain’s Strategy : While Democrats continue their nomination battle, Republican Sen. John McCain has three overarching objectives: 1. Consolidate his support and enhance his stature as a statesman and leader. 2. Raise money and build a national organization for the general election. 3. Pick a vice presidential running mate.

Service: With the nomination secured, McCain has launched his “Service to America” biographical tour, a weeklong series of speeches spotlighting high points in his life: Meridian, Miss., where he was a flight instructor at the field named for his grandfather; Alexandria, Va., where he attended high school; Annapolis, Md., where he attended the Naval Academy; Jacksonville, Fla., his home before and after his five years of captivity in Vietnam; and Prescott, Ariz., where he now makes his home.

Upcoming GOP primaries:
April 22 – Pennsylvania (74 delegates)
May 5 – Virgin Islands (9)
May 6 – North Carolina (69) and Indiana (57)
May 13 – Nebraska (33)
May 16 – Hawaii (20)
May 20 – Oregon (30) and Kentucky (45)
May 27 – Idaho (32)
June 3 – New Mexico (32) and South Dakota (27)
September 1-4: Republican Convention – Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.

Stalemate: Democratic Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are deadlocked. Obama has a small lead in delegates selected in party primaries and caucuses and has received 717,000 more votes than Clinton (not including results in the still disputed states of Michigan and Florida). But with existing party rules and the number of primaries left, it is not possible for either candidate to reach the 2,024 total needed for the nomination.

According to RealClearPolitics, an independent website, as of Apr. 1 Obama has 1,417 delegates who have been selected in the primaries and caucuses to date; Clinton has 1,248 delegates. There are 566 delegates at stake in the remaining state contests. They will be allocated proportionally according to votes cast.

Unless one of the candidates concedes, the nomination likely will be decided by the 795 “superdelegates,” the unelected delegates who are past and current Democratic officeholders, state party leaders and specially appointed groups. At the moment, Obama has the support of 215 superdelegates, Clinton has the support of 250 superdelegates, and 330 remain undecided. But the superdelegates are not bound by party rules and could change their support at any time.

Upcoming Democratic primaries:
May 3 – Guam (4)
May 6 – North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72)
May 13 – West Virginia (28)
May 20 – Oregon (52) and Kentucky (60)
June 1 – Puerto Rico (55)
June 3 – South Dakota (15) and Montana (16)
August 25-28: Democratic Convention – Denver, Colo.

03|5|08 -- Super Tuesday: Part II

Sen. John McCain swept to victory in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island and captured the Republican presidential nomination, while Hillary Clinton revived her campaign, winning three of four primaries on a make-or-break Tuesday for her candidacy.

Here's what the results mean for the candidates.

1. McCain wins. The Arizona senator won all 256 delegates at stake to capture the Republican nomination. McCain has already turned his fire on Democrats, but the famously superstitious candidate had refused to claim victory or initiate the process of finding a vice president until he was sure he had won. The search starts now.

2. Hillary's back. Against long odds, she dramatically reinvigorated her coalition of women, older voters, Hispanics and the working poor to stop Obama's streak of 11 straight victories. Her economic and health care proposals were persuasive in Ohio, and in Texas she won with her aggressive pitch—including a sobering television ad campaign stressing her experience. The slugfest goes forward to Wyoming and Mississippi in the next week, then a Pennsylvania showdown on April 22.

3. Democratic math. The winner needs 2,025 delegates, but there's no clear path to that marker for either Obama or Clinton. Obama has nearly a 100-delegate lead. Clinton has won most major states. That means the nomination could still hinge on the party's 796 superdelegates and decisions over how to deal with Michigan and Florida. National Democratic leaders ruled that those two state primaries would not count because the states defied party rules and held primaries in January.

4. Does message trump money? Both Democratic candidates have flush war chests. Between them, Obama and Clinton reported raising $85 million in the past month, and Obama reportedly outspent Clinton handily in both Ohio and Texas. But according to Texas exit polls, one of five voters said they had decided how to vote in the past three days. Of them, 60 percent supported Clinton. This coincides with Clinton's controversial "red phone ad," a stark television advertisement in which the narrator warns of a world crisis and the White House phone is ringing. "Your vote will decide who answers that call," the narrator says. "Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military—someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world." It concludes when Clinton picks up the phone. The candidates reported they had $25 million on hand last month and have had no trouble raising money. The question is how they will spend it.

5. Superdelegates get a break. Of the 4,048 delegates to the Democratic convention, 795 are so-called superdelegates—the band of 27 governors, 258 members of Congress, 411 Democratic National Committee members, 23 distinguished party leaders and 76 "add-ons" picked by state party organizations. Already, 241 have pledged to Clinton, 199 to Obama. There will be a hiatus on any further pledging as the two candidates continue their slugfest. But soon both candidates, who are anxious to secure the nomination before the September convention, will intensify their pressure on the superdelegates.

6. The 50-plus election. About half of the voters in all four March 4 primaries were over 50. They favored Clinton and McCain. The 50-plus voters are preoccupied with health and the economy. According to a Washington Post-ABC poll, the issue of greatest concern to Texas voters was health (33%), followed by the economy (22%) and Iraq (14%), with immigration far back at 4%. In Ohio, the economy was the major concern (34%), followed by health (30%) and Iraq (9%). Immigration did not register. Clinton's emphasis on health care and the economy was particularly effective in the two big states.

7. Take a deep breath, Democrats. This won't be decided for a while. There are 158 delegates at stake in Pennsylvania. But there are six primaries with 322 delegates at stake in May, and three more primaries in June. That has precedence: Bill Clinton didn't clinch his 1992 nomination until June 4.

8. What it means for Democrats.
Sen. Hillary Clinton Her comeback victories were dramatic and more decisive than expected. They changed the momentum in the campaign, and her challenge is to sustain it. Can she keep up the pressure on Obama, or does she reassert a posture as frontrunner and target McCain? How does she deflect criticism as the only of the announced candidates not to disclose recent income tax returns?
Sen. Barack Obama The senator faced two critical questions: Could he win big states and could he win the Hispanic vote? The answer was no on both counts. He has a month to retool his campaign and his message, though he faces a complicated decision: Does he switch targets from John McCain back to Hillary Clinton? How sharply does he criticize her? How hard does he press?

9. What it means for Republicans.
Sen. John McCain The focus is on November and his Democratic challenger. As the Democratic primary campaign continues, he'll have a chance to build a national campaign, raise funds and devise a long-term strategy. He's also burnishing his economic credentials and collecting President George W. Bush's endorsement on March 5, and he'll no doubt schedule another fact-finding trip to Iraq as he tries to frame the war debate on future options, not past decisions.
Gov. Mike Huckabee His folksy, revivalist campaign collected 259 delegates and he secured a nice speaking assignment at the Republican convention next September. But he was shut out yesterday and he shut down his campaign gracefully. "It's now important that we turn our attention not to what could have been or what we wanted to have been but now what must be, and that is a united party," he said.

10. The last word. This comes from Neil Newhouse, Republican strategist and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, a public affairs research firm: "It's not a matter of splitting the party as much as it is of providing us on the GOP side of the aisle with talking points and ammunition for the fall campaign. While the length of the Democratic race has certainly captured the attention of the electorate, the longer this goes on, the better chance McCain has in November."

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02|20|08 -- Wisconsin, Washington and Hawaii Primaries

Wisconsin voters helped Sen. John McCain all but clinch the Republican presidential nomination and gave Sen. Barack Obama's surging campaign another bigger-than-expected boost. Gov. Mike Huckabee said he would continue his campaign quest, while Sen. Hillary Clinton retreated to regroup in New York before resuming her pursuit of Texas and Ohio voters later this week.

Here's what the results mean to the campaigns.

1. Hello, Houston. Democratic and Republican candidates now focus on delegate-rich Texas and bellwether state Ohio and March 4 primaries there. The Clinton campaign has made Texas and Ohio must-win states. In Texas, she's counting on strong support from Hispanics, who have lagged in their support for Obama. In Ohio, she's counting on her economic security message to resonate among financially stressed voters. Her campaign may not be able to overcome a loss in either one. Republican front-runner John McCain hopes that victory in Texas will formally secure the nomination.

2. It's not over till it's over. But ... The primary campaign has run deeper into the campaign year than ever before. For Democrats, the race goes on. Both candidates' campaigns have game plans with plausible winning strategies. There are still 14 state primaries and caucuses, with nearly 1,000 delegates, including Texas and Ohio on March 4, Pennsylvania on April 22 and North Carolina on May 6. There are also two important debates ahead—a CNN debate in Texas on Feb. 21 and an MSNBC debate in Ohio next week.

3. Fast-forward. For Republicans, there are 15 state primaries and caucuses remaining. McCain will use campaign appearances to sharpen his message for fall, stressing his credentials as the experienced, world-wise patriot.

4. The money gap. Obama's record-setting fundraising success and prudent marshalling of funds gave him a huge advertising advantage in Wisconsin. He carries that advantage into the key March primaries. Both he and Clinton have raised well over $115 million, more than twice as much as McCain and ten times as much as Huckabee.

5. The 50-plus election. Voters over 50 constitute the largest voting bloc in this year's election, bringing their concerns for health care and financial security to the fore. According to Wisconsin exit interviews, Clinton continued to win among voters over 65, but Obama won among all voter groups under 64. Interestingly, for all of her work as an advocate for universal health care, she has not been able to win among those voters most concerned with health. Should Clinton drop out, those 50-plus voters become a battleground for the fall campaign, since they are the heart of McCain's support.

6. Check the scoreboard. McCain can formally wrap up his party nomination on March 4. Delegate counting is very imprecise, but several head counters at RealClearPolitics.com say that McCain has approximately 960 pledged delegates, followed by Mitt Romney's 273, Huckabee's 245 and Ron Paul's 14. The Republican winner needs 1,191 delegates. For Democrats, Obama has pulled ahead of Clinton by more than 150 delegates—1,185 to 1,024, by their estimate. He also has 168 pledged superdelegates to her 239. There are still 388 uncommitted superdelegates.

7. Those superdelegates are still important. Democrats created a class of party professionals, leaders and office holders two decades ago to provide stability and collective wisdom in case the primary voting goes awry. Of this year's 795 superdelegates, roughly half are already committed, with Clinton ahead of Obama by nearly two to one. But these delegates are not legally bound, and may switch allegiance as the convention approaches.

8. What it means for the Democrats.
Sen. Barack Obama The front-runner continues to roll up victories. In the 10 caucuses and primaries since Super Tuesday, he has pulled ahead of Clinton by cutting into her traditional areas of strength. In Wisconsin, he won in cities, in suburbs and in rural areas, among all income levels and in all age groups except voters over 65.
Sen. Hillary Clinton She needs a dramatic turnaround. It could come in the two debates that precede the March 4 primaries. It could also come if the Obama campaign makes a mistake. The Clintons have had political comebacks before. She has declared that Texas and Ohio are must-win states for her, and she's right.

9. What it means for the Republicans.
Sen. John McCain Continues to rack up the delegates and endorsements. In the past week, House Republicans and former President George H.W. Bush embraced McCain as he continued his crucial effort to consolidate the party's conservative base. With a comfortable lead in the delegate hunt, McCain is also sharpening his focus on his Democratic opponent, whoever that may be. Expect ongoing refinement of his "I know how the world works" message.
Gov. Mike Huckabee He's still standing. The McCain-Huckabee gap was smaller than the Obama-Clinton gap. That underscores the ongoing conservative resistence to McCain; it also gives Huckabee's campaign a reason for continuing. His hope of accumulating more delegates than Gov. Mitt Romney means his campaign will continue.
Rep. Ron Paul With 5 percent of the vote, his libertarian message continues to attract financial and voter support. He still has several million dollars left to spend, so will continue spending it.

10. The last word. Veteran Democratic strategist and Clinton supporter Paul Begala had a simple explanation when asked what was wrong with Hillary Clinton's campaign. "She’s losing," he replied.

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02|13|08 -- Potomac Primaries
Barack Obama's sweep of three primaries on Feb. 12 gives him 21 out of 31 state victories, pushing his "hope and change" campaign into a very thin delegate lead over Hillary Clinton. He can't quite claim he's the front-runner, but he's certainly no longer the underdog. John McCain rolled over his last challengers, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, but neither of them seemed inclined to shut down. So the race continues next week in Wisconsin.

Here's what the primaries mean to the presidential campaigns.

1. McCain wins. He should win every race in the next 16 state (and three territory) primaries. That would give him the Republican nomination, a remarkable accomplishment for a campaign that was broke and in tatters seven months ago. This gives him time to sharpen his message against Democrats, to play the role of statesman and to consolidate his support in the party's conservative base.

2. McCain wins. Or did he? McCain's way ahead in the delegate count. But Republican conservatives are still antsy. They don't like his independence, his votes against the Bush tax cuts six years ago and for stem cell research, and his effort to reform campaign finance. Says Huckabee: "Republicans are still looking," and that's a problem for McCain. As long as Huckabee stays in the race, he draws support from an agitated evangelical base that McCain will desperately need to win a general election.

3. Obama's widening his lead by closing the gaps. Clinton has consistently outpolled Obama among women, older voters and Hispanics. But in the Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C., primaries, he narrowed her lead among Hispanics and won over older voters and women. That trend, if it continues, could be fatal for the Clinton campaign.

4. For Hillary, thankfully, a pause to refresh. After next Tuesday's Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries, there's a two-week break before make-or-break votes in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. If, as appears likely, she'll largely pass on Wisconsin, she is staking her entire campaign on big victories March 4 in Texas (with a huge Hispanic vote) and Ohio (where poor whites and union voters support her) and on April 22 in Pennsylvania. It may be risky, but there's no alternative.

5. The superdelegates. These 796 Democratic party officials, office holders and dignitaries, who are automatic convention delegates, could decide the nomination. But don't count on it. Of the 796 superdelegates, 242 support Clinton and 156 support Obama. They are pledged to candidates but not legally bound, which could make things interesting at the convention. The battle for the superdelegates' allegiance is extraordinary. (One young Democratic leader was given breakfast with Chelsea Clinton.)

6. Check the standings. The Republican winner needs 1,191 delegates. Getting a precise count is difficult, but according to CNN, McCain has 812 delegates; Mitt Romney, who has already dropped out, has 285; Huckabee has 217 and Ron Paul has 14. The Democratic winner needs 2,025. Obama has 1103 and Clinton has 968.

7. The 50-plus election. With fewer candidates, the differences are clearer. Both Obama and Clinton voted for the economic stimulus package that included a special rebate for 20 million people whose primary income is Social Security. McCain missed the vote to campaign. On health care, Clinton would use a combination of private, business and government funds to provide health care insurance; Obama worries about the cost of universal coverage and would start with providing care for children. McCain prefers letting private interests provide coverage. Meanwhile, all three leading candidates favor letting the Secretary of Health and Human Services negotiate prescription drug prices for Medicare. In the horserace, older Republican voters are consolidating behind McCain, while older Democratic voters are swinging ever so slightly to Obama.

8. What it means for Democrats.
Sen. Barack Obama How long does this sweep continue? His immediate target is Wisconsin on Feb. 19, where he hopes to extend his winning streak and build even more momentum for the Texas-Ohio shootout on March 4. His test is developing a persuasive pitch that appeals to northern white workers in Wisconsin and Ohio and to Hispanics in Texas.
Sen. Hillary Clinton Clinton can't be happy with her campaign. She's in a virtual dead heat for the nomination. Still, she's shuffling her top advisers and fired the campaign manager. She's blown through $100 million in contributions and her fund-raising effort can't keep up with Obama's. She had to use $5 million of her own money to sustain it. She's now banking on a strong showing in Ohio and in Texas. She has an early lead and advantages in both states, including the endorsement of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland. But there's an air of desperation in her strategy.

9. What it means for Republicans.
Sen. John McCain His presumptive nomination and new focus on Democratic opponents can't mask a lingering problem with the conservative base of the Republican Party. McCain calls Huckabee's ongoing success "a surprise. A real surprise." McCain's real problem is time. The sooner Huckabee withdraws, the longer McCain will have to patch up relations with conservatives. The longer Huckabee stays in, the more irritating it will be for McCain.
Gov. Mike Huckabee He's having too much fun to quit. He faces growing pressure from McCain and Republican leaders to shut down his campaign. "I'll dye my hair green first," he says. Whether he's angling for a vice presidential bid or just wants to pass Mitt Romney's delegate count (he trails Romney by more than 60), the bottom line is that Huckabee symbolizes the greater problem McCain faces with conservatives.

10. The last word. "I'm all fired up and ready to go." John McCain closed his victory speech Tuesday in Virginia with the exclamation that Obama has used from the start of his campaign.

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02|06|08 -- Super Tuesday
Sen. John McCain has packed his bags, while Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have put on boxing gloves. With Super Tuesday's wins, McCain has a healthy lead and has tentatively booked a quick European trip for a global security conference in Munich. Clinton and Obama have more immediate tasks. They'll start the next round of their slugfest at campaign rallies in Washington for Senate duties before fanning out to Virginia and Louisiana.

In record numbers, voters in 23 states appropriated convention delegates from Maine to American Samoa on Super Tuesday. Here's what the voting meant for the presidential campaigns.

1. McCain's the man. His Straight Talk Express left the Huckabee and Romney campaigns in the dust as he closes in on the nomination. He needs 1,191 delegates and is almost halfway there, a startling comeback from the disarray of last July when his campaign needed an emergency loan backed by a life insurance policy on the 71-year-old McCain. To underscore the point, Romney shuttered his campaign Thursday.

2. And the Democrats' winner is ... still not clear. Because most primaries allocate delegates in proportion to voting results, Clinton won the major head-to-head contests in California and New York. But with Obama winning in 13 states and holding his own in the big states, he and Clinton essentially split the delegates at stake. According to the Associated Press, Clinton won just over 800 delegates and Obama won just under 800. The winner needs 2,025 delegates. With earlier victories, Clinton has nearly 1,100 delegates; Obama has around 1,000.

3. No rest for the weary. In the 10 days starting Feb. 9, Democrats in seven states, the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands will pick 520 delegates—one-fourth of the total needed to secure the Democratic nomination. That includes Louisiana, Maryland, Washington and Wisconsin. Then follow big-state primaries in Ohio and Texas on March 4, and Pennsylvania on April 22. May primaries in Indiana and North Carolina may matter. Watch the Super Delegates. These are the 700 office holders and party dignitaries with automatic seats at the convention. More than 400 are uncommitted and will be one of the critical battlegrounds in the tug of war ahead.

4. Republicans are restless. Victories in five states by the ever-resilient Razorback Mike Huckabee and in six states by Mitt Romney underscore the wide disquiet with McCain's march to the nomination. Conservative talk radio hosts and party stalwarts like Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) are slow to forgive the frontrunner for his years of disdain and perceived slights. McCain will have to devote substantial energy to rehabilitating his ties to the party's traditional base.

5. Money matters. Obama's record-setting January—$32 million raised—leaves him with plenty of cash on hand as he heads into the next round of primaries and caucuses. Romney has outspent McCain nearly three to one; that includes an estimated $35 million of his own money. But after his disappointing finishes yesterday, he closed his wallet.

6. Soaring turnout. Voters in record numbers are participating in the primaries and caucuses. That happened again on Super Tuesday, and the trend will likely continue. Maryland Democratic officials anticipate around 1 million voters on Feb. 12, compared to 470,000 in the 2004 primaries.

7. The 50-plus election. The 2008 surprise is the surge of young voters engaged in the campaign. Still, older voters, that segment of the population most likely to vote, represent around half of the total electorate. To appeal to 50-plus voters, candidates have increased their focus on health care, in particular, in their ads and on the campaign trail. At the same time, "retired" contributors ranked second among "industries" giving to the presidential candidates, behind lawyers and ahead of Wall Street. Retirees gave $38 million in all of 2007, splitting evenly between Republicans and Democrats.

8. Here's what it means for the Republicans.
Sen. John McCain He won the voting in nine states. With that hefty lead, he turns to the general campaign and burnishing his credentials as a seasoned global leader. His has been a roller-coaster run, but the nomination now seems to be within grasp.
Gov. Mitt Romney His losses in California and Missouri added to the string of disappointment of this once-promising campaign. His campaign spent nearly $90 million, nearly three times as much as McCain and 10 times more than Huckabee, with little to show for it. To continue would be to aggravate the Republican Party he may seek to lead in four or eight years.
Gov. Mike Huckabee He's back. His wing-and-a-prayer campaign won West Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and his home state of Arkansas. That's just enough to keep him on the road at least for the next month.

9. Here's what it means for the Democrats.
Sen. Hillary Clinton She has held off a very strong challenge from Obama, with key wins in California and Massachusetts. If she can keep pace with the Illinois challenger over the next two weeks, the race returns to Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where she has a strong advantage.
Sen. Barack Obama Won 13 states and promises to be competitive in the next round of primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Louisiana. But he faces big challenges in the showdown states of Texas and Ohio (March 4) and Pennsylvania (April 22).

10. The Last Word. John McCain: "Get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party frontrunner ... I don't mind it one bit."

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01|30|08 -- Florida Primary
It's on to Super Tuesday. Can Hillary Clinton and John McCain be stopped? Both candidates have significant advantages as the presidential campaign lurches to Super Tuesday, the unprecedented extravaganza to pick delegates in 24 states on Feb. 5. With voting from Massachusetts to Alaska, it's essentially a national primary that will test the candidates' finances and organization. Clinton has both, which gives her a significant advantage over her last standing rival, Sen. Barack Obama. McCain is short on cash and his organization is still being rebuilt. But he has all-important momentum in his showdown with Mitt Romney.

Here are the dynamics at work in this make-or-break week for the campaigns.

1. John McCain moves to the top of the Republican mountain.
He's come back twice now—from the 2000 drubbing at the hands of George W. Bush and from his flameout last summer, when he fired his staff, ran out of money and was carrying his own suitcase on his campaign travels. Mitt Romney's banking on loud support from the conservative chattering class, the talk show hosts across the country like Rush Limbaugh who warn that the nomination of McCain will destroy the Republican party.

2. The bewildering challenge of Super Tuesday.
There are Democratic primaries and caucuses in 22 states with 52 percent of the convention delegates at stake. There are Republican primaries and caucuses in 21 states with 41 percent of delegates at stake. It is variously called Super Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday (Meet the Press), Giga Tuesday, Tuesday of Destiny or Doozy Tuesday (Slate's Walter Shapiro). (Do you have a better idea? Send it to editor@aarp.org.) The rules vary widely: Republicans are holding caucuses in five states and a convention in one. Democrats are holding caucuses in seven states. In California, Democrats allocate their delegates proportionally, while Republicans award delegates on a winner-take-all basis in each of the 53 congressional districts.

3. Rudy who?
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani bet his entire campaign on a Florida victory and lost badly. Two weeks ago he led in Florida statewide polls, but sagged in the face of the momentum generated by early state primary winners Mitt Romney and John McCain. A year ago, he had a 2-1 lead over all other Republican candidates in national polls, largely because of his high name recognition. But his campaign never ignited. He never got comfortable with voters, and his strategy imploded. He is expected to endorse McCain this week and leaves the campaign with one delegate.

4. Can McCain capture Reagan magic? And what will it mean in November?
McCain will address his historical weakness with conservative Republicans when he travels to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to accept Giuliani’s endorsement and embrace the legacy of the former president. He has always been a fiscal conservative and a high-profile critic of pork barrel spending. He also opposes abortion and has been a consistent supporter of the Iraq War. After his support of immigration legislation almost destroyed his presidential campaign last summer, he moderated his position by stressing the importance of first protecting national borders before addressing the challenge of amnesty.

5. Showdown in California.
There are 441 delegates at stake in the Democratic primary and 173 at stake in the Republican primary, so the stakes are huge. Romney may try a patchwork strategy of focusing on select states like Massachusetts, where he leads, and marshall his resources for a major effort in California. It is a big state, and advertising will be costly. But California may represent his last best chance of stopping McCain's campaign.

6. The Barack Obama questions.
He is on the short end in most statewide polling in the Super Tuesday states, but a string of high-profile endorsements have generated significant buzz, if not momentum. What will be the effect of the endorsement of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy? How effective will Obama's organization be in the face of support for Clinton by much of the Democratic party establishment? Finally, where will John Edwards' supporters go? If they move as an anyone-but-Clinton bloc, Obama would get a big lift. Otherwise, Super Tuesday could be a very long day for the Illinois senator.

7. The 50-plus election.
More than half of Florida's voters were over 50, and a third were over 65. In the Republican primary, McCain won 41 percent of their votes. Despite the presence of millions of retired New Yorkers, Giuliani received only 17 percent of the 65-plus vote, in part because he touted his proposal to privatize Social Security. In the nonbinding Democratic primary, Clinton's emphasis on health care helped her win most of the 65-plus vote. Once again, older voters, especially women, determined the winners.

8. Here's what it means to the Republicans.
Sen. John McCain (36%) His across-the-board victory in Florida has bolstered a campaign that was revived in New Hampshire and South Carolina. A career of independence and straight talk leaves him with many enemies in the Republican party. He also has been targeted by influential conservatives such as Rush Limbaugh as not being conservative enough, a label he’ll try dispelling as he recasts his campaign rhetoric to underscore his conservative roots and affection for Ronald Reagan.
Gov. Mitt Romney (31%) Is California the last stand? How much of his personal fortune will he commit to his campaign—beyond the $40 million he's already spent?
Gov. Mike Huckabee (13%) His decision to stay in the race despite scant financial resources could fragment evangelical Republican voters and cut into Romney's support in the southern and Midwest states on Super Tuesday.
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (15%) He may set a record for the quickest collapse. He raised and spent $40 million, and leaves the campaign with one delegate.
Rep. Ron Paul His red-state popularity will help him in the Republicans' 21 state primaries and caucuses. A red-state favorite, he still has money to spend.

9. Here's what it means to the Democrats.
Sen. Hillary Clinton She's counting on her early organizing and deep support from the Democratic establishment to close down the Obama challenge on Super Tuesday. There have already been many turns and twists in this campaign, but she's working hard to minimize them.
Sen. Barack Obama His stirring "hope and change" speech, and his ability to raise money and attract new voters could cause some upsets on Super Tuesday.
Sen. John Edwards His populist campaign has run out of gas. The question now is where do his supporters go?

10. The last word.
Rudy Giuliani can retire his campaign speech, which Sen. Joseph Biden described as "a noun, a verb and 9/11" in every sentence.

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01|23|08 -- Looking South
Four weeks and $200 million into the 2008 election campaign, and with a landscape already littered with fallen candidates, no one has a lock on the Republican or Democratic presidential nomination. Sen. John McCain has won two state Republican primaries, and Gov. Mitt Romney has won one primary and two party caucuses.

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton traded victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, followed by Clinton's popular-vote victory in Nevada last weekend.

For both parties, the nomination is up for grabs. So what does it mean for the presidential campaign? Here are several early indicators.

1. Sour Democrats square off.
Obama and Clinton took off the gloves for weekend debates in Nevada and South Carolina. It's easy to understand why. Time is short, and the stakes are rising. Clinton, with timely assists from her husband, has sharpened her attack lines on Obama's experience, his opposition to the Iraq war and a past client and contributor who is a bankrupt Chicago slumlord. Rather than duck, Obama has counterpunched with attacks on her tenure on the Wal-Mart board of directors, her early support of the Iraq war and for misstating Obama's record. John Edwards is properly upset that neither candidate takes him seriously. The Democratic battle will get nastier before any cease-fire takes hold.

2. It's Rudy time ... or is it?
Rudy Giuliani gambled that the early primaries would not yield a front-runner, setting him up as the logical and leading choice when Republicans vote in Florida on Jan. 29 and in 21 states across the country seven days later. The Super Tuesday lineup includes big states New York and New Jersey in the East, Illinois in the Midwest and California in the West. First, Florida votes and it's John McCain and Mitt Romney who are gaining strength there at the expense of Giuliani and Mike Huckabee. The real question coming out of Florida is whether Republicans must then choose between McCain and Romney or whether the choice is McCain vs. Romney vs. Giuliani.

3. Don't expect a Republican front-runner.
At least not before the Florida primary Jan. 29 or Super Tuesday on Feb 5. And maybe not even then. John McCain has momentum now, but has never attracted more than 30 percent of Republican voters. Gov. Mike Huckabee had a solid showing in Iowa, but he needed to win in South Carolina. His support has not exceeded the conservative evangelical wing of the party. Mitt Romney has spent some $70 million and won two states. Rudy Giuliani, who has trailed badly in early voting, hopes lightning strikes in Florida on Jan. 29.

4. There's no Democratic front-runner either ... yet.
Not before Super Tuesday, but for different reasons than the Republicans. Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama have strong support and are sufficiently well-financed to wage a cross-country battle in Super Tuesday and beyond if necessary. Money will determine Sen. John Edwards' fate. The longer he stays viable, the greater the chance his populist message will catch on, especially as public attention turns to the slumping economy.

5. Florida's for dough, Florida's for show.
The pace quickens. With 57 winner-take-all delegates at stake, this is serious for the Republican candidates. The outcome will determine whether the field is reduced to three candidates or two. For Democrats, Florida's voting is a beauty contest, but it's a beauty contest that can help affirm momentum for the winner going into the 22-state Super Tuesday showdown.

6. Name that Tuesday.
The Feb. 5 primaries—22 states with 52 percent of the convention delegates at stake for Democrats and 21 states with 41 percent of delegates at stake for Republicans—is variously called Super Tuesday, Tsunami Tuesday (Meet the Press), Giga Tuesday, Tuesday of Destiny or Doozy Tuesday (Slate's Walter Shapiro). Do you have a better idea? Send it to jtoedtman@aarp.org.

7. The 50-plus election.
With Iraq receding as a front-burner issue, issues of primary interest to 50-plus voters have become dominant campaign concerns. Polling shows voters' preoccupation with financial security, jobs and health security, especially with gyrations on Wall Street and the economic downturn. More than half the primary voters in South Carolina and Florida are over 50. Their concern with health care has shaped much of the campaign debate. Obama has acknowledged the dynamic with a special economic stimulus plan that includes a $250 bonus for Social Security recipients.

8. Here's what it means to the Republicans.
Sen. John McCain Strengths: Resilience. His campaign is revived, and a Florida win could propel him into a two-way battle with Romney on Super Tuesday. Weaknesses: He's short on cash. He has been targeted by influential commentator Rush Limbaugh as not conservative enough. Independents gave him victory margins in New Hampshire and South Carolina. But from here, Republicans alone will pick delegates, and a career of independence and straight talk have left him with many enemies in the Republican party.
Gov. Mitt Romney Strengths: Victories in Nevada and Michigan helped reestablish momentum. He also has the wealth to sustain that beyond Florida if he chooses. The key question: How much of his own money will he spend trying to generate momentum? Weaknesses: Still hasn't shown broad-based Republican support.
Gov. Mike Huckabee Strengths: An increasingly enthusiastic evangelical Christian base. Weaknesses: Does that support grow beyond the South? He also needs money.
Mayor Rudy Giuliani His strategy of neglecting early primaries to concentrate on delegate-rich states like Florida, New York, New Jersey and California is risky. But it looks better now with no clear leader among Huckabee, Romney and McCain.
Rep. Ron Paul Nobody is more surprised by Ron Paul's success than Ron Paul. How much longer will his campaign last? Till the last dime and not a minute longer.

9. Here's what it means to the Democrats.
Sen. Hillary Clinton Strengths: Strong support from women, plenty of money, she's resilient and she has a forceful message. Weaknesses: She still splits the nation's voters, at least for the moment. Doesn't poll well against Republicans. Remember, it's a long campaign, but her strengths may outweigh her weaknesses.
Sen. Barack Obama Strengths: Soaring rhetorical appeal of "hope and change;" his ability to raise money and attract new voters. Weaknesses: The schedule is accelerating. He's having more success with educated, high-income Democrats than more numerous, middle-income Democrats.
Sen. John Edwards Short of cash, but he pledges to continue his populist campaign through the primary season and to the party’s August convention.

10. The last word.
Mike Huckabee's concession speech after the South Carolina primary: "Politics—particularly this year perhaps more than any other—is a process. And that process is far, far from over."

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01|09|08 -- New Hampshire Primary

Dramatic comebacks were staged by Sen. John McCain, who retained his New Hampshire magic, and Sen. Hillary Clinton, who revived her campaign, as New Hampshire primary voters in record numbers continued their tradition of upending the best of political strategies and the surest of political predictions.

So what does it mean for the 2008 presidential campaign? Here are several early indicators.

1. It's a Republican free-for-all.
John McCain has momentum, but is short on cash. Mitt Romney has the cash, but will he spend it? Mike Huckabee's confident and spending money as quickly as he raises it. And Rudy Giuliani's strategy of waiting until the big states (starting with Florida) to compete may yet be vindicated. Bottom line: There's no Republican front-runner.

2. It's a Democratic donnybrook.
Hillary's back, Barack's loaded, and John Edwards promises to stay in the race to the convention. That means battles in Nevada, Michigan, South Carolina and Florida and then, with guns blazing, in the 24-state Super Tuesday extravaganza.

3. The pace quickens.
The campaign's retail politics phase, when nearly every resident of Iowa and New Hampshire has a chance to meet at least one of the candidates, is over. Next Tuesday, Republicans square off in Michigan, followed quickly on Jan. 19 by the South Carolina primary and Nevada caucus and on Jan. 29 by the Florida primary. Democrats have a comparative lull before votes are cast in Nevada (Jan. 19), then South Carolina (Jan. 26) and Florida (Jan. 29). Put aside any thought that the two races might be decided before Feb. 5, when Republican and Democratic candidates face off in 24 primaries from coast to coast.

4. Older voters, especially women, determined the winners.
In Iowa, Clinton was the choice among those over 65; those under 65 voted for Obama. In New Hampshire she expanded that advantage, winning 67 percent of those over 40. She also was the choice of 57 percent women of all ages; in Iowa, she won only among women over 65. While Republicans indicated their votes were determined by the personalities of candidates, Democrats told pollsters their concerns for issues—the Iraq War, economic issues and health care—influenced their votes. In part, the Democratic candidates had slightly different positions on health care and on Social Security. Edwards had focused on the economic inequities of American society, while Clinton had focused much recent rhetoric on current joblessness, inflation and energy prices.

5. Thank you, Independents, and goodbye.
Independents voted in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but they don't participate in the primaries or caucuses in the next month, and that helps Clinton. She won the New Hampshire primary 39 percent to 36 percent. But among Democrats, she won 45 to 34. In New Hampshire, 43 percent of independents said they voted for Obama, and 31 percent said they backed Clinton. Some Independents chose to vote in the Republican primary in New Hampshire and voted for McCain, but generally in the same proportion as Republicans. Independents made up 43 percent of all voters polled. But for the most part, the next round of primaries are limited to registered Democrats and Republicans.

6. What money?
Both Democratic winners in Iowa and New Hampshire are well financed, having raised nearly $100 million each. But the Republican winners, Huckabee and McCain, were the poorest-financed of all the candidates. Conventional wisdom says Giuliani now has a political advantage because he has more cash on hand than any other candidate. But conventional wisdom didn't expect Huckabee or McCain victories.

7. Here's what it means to the Republicans.
Sen. John McCain (37%) His campaign is revived, but short on cash. New Hampshire has always been friendly to McCain, giving him an upset primary over then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in 2000. He couldn't sustain that momentum in 2000, and it's uncertain he can now. But his comeback since summer, when he was out of money, laid off most of his staff and focused all of his attention on New Hampshire, is remarkable.
Gov. Mitt Romney (32%) His slick, well-financed strategy to create national momentum with early Iowa and New Hampshire wins is in tatters. He did win last week's Wyoming caucuses. Now the key question remains: How much of his own money will he spend trying to generate momentum?
Gov. Mike Huckabee (11%) Victory in the Iowa caucuses showcased his authenticity shtick and provided the bounce for his third-place finish. He faces a showdown in South Carolina with McCain. Beyond that, his future will be dictated by a cash squeeze and his ability to expand his appeal beyond the evangelical Christian base.
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (9%) Still leading Republican candidates in national polls, though barely. His big-state strategy of neglecting early primaries and concentrating on delegate-rich states like Florida on Jan. 29 and the Super Tuesday states New York, New Jersey and California is risky. But it looks better now that there's no clear leader among Huckabee, Romney and McCain when Republicans go to the polls on Super Tuesday.
Rep. Ron Paul (8%) His libertarian message has galvanized contributors, giving him the cash to hang on.
Sen. Fred Thompson (1%) This campaign's on life support, but it continues because he expects to pick up strength in upcoming Southern primaries.
Rep. Duncan Hunter (0%) Out of money.

8. Here's what it means to the Democrats.
Sen. Hillary Clinton (39%) She accomplished something her husband never did—win a New Hampshire primary. This is a long campaign, her campaign is well financed, and the Clintons are nothing if not resilient.
Sen. Barack Obama (36%) His "change-and-hope" campaign hit a snag in New Hampshire. Can he recapture the spark in South Carolina? It's a head-to-head race with Clinton, and it should be a doozy.
Sen. John Edwards (17%) Short of cash, but he pledges to continue his populist campaign through the primary season and to the party's August convention.
Gov. Bill Richardson (5%) His campaign effort will be dictated by the cash he can raise.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%) He's having too much fun, so he and his wife will keep on trucking.

9. The last word. John McCain at his final New Hampshire campaign appearance Monday in Exeter: "Thank you for your friendship. Thank you for your support. Please vote for us tomorrow. But most importantly, I cannot tell you what an honor it is for me to have had the great privilege of sharing so many wonderful, wonderful experiences with you about the most important part of democracy, the best part of democracy in a nation that is still a shining city on a hill."

Or Hillary Clinton at her victory speech Tuesday: "Let's give America the same kind of comeback New Hampshire has just given me."

 

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01|03|08 -- Iowa Caucuses

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama were the big winners as a record number of Iowans cast the first votes in the 2008 presidential campaign. So what does it mean? Here are several tips to help understand what it means for the campaign and what it means for the candidates.

1. New Hampshire's a two-front war with huge stakes for Iowa's losers.
Huckabee's victory makes New Hampshire a three-way Republican showdown with Romney, who must win, and McCain, who will be favored. New Hampshire becomes a must-win primary for Clinton, and the Clintons will pull out all the stops.

2. They're off.
Candidates spent a whopping $40 million on television ads for 1,781 caucuses, which produced surprising results. But it's just beginning. It's a front-loaded campaign like never before, with the next primary in New Hampshire on Jan. 8, followed quickly by voting in Michigan (Jan. 15 for Republicans), South Carolina (Jan. 19 for Republicans and Jan. 26 for Democrats), Nevada (Jan. 19), Florida (Jan. 29 for Republicans) and then Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, when primaries are held in 24 states.

3. Change wins.
Obama discovered the spark of his "change and hope" message as a rationale for his campaign, and both Republicans and Democrats have adapted their campaigns to try to capture the magic. It especially resonates with young voters who turned out in record numbers for Obama. Will Obama keep his magic touch? Can Clinton make the switch?

4. Oprah beats Bill.
Her appearances helped draw women voters to Obama, who won among all women, 35 percent to 30 percent. Bill Clinton's appearances for his wife generated enthusiasm, but were sometimes a distraction. She'll need all the magic he can muster.

5. It's not over.
Iowa is no bellwether. Don’t forget that George H.W. Bush lost to Bob Dole, yet became president. Bill Clinton lost to Tom Harkin, yet became president. And Michael Dukakis lost to Rep. Dick Gephardt, yet won the 1988 Democratic nomination.

6. Democracy wins.
Participation in the caucuses soared, especially among Democrats. The number of Republicans grew from 87,000 in 2000 (the last contested GOP contest) to slightly under 115,000; the number of Democrats nearly doubled, from 124,000 in 2004 to 239,000, driven especially by younger voters.

7. Watch the boomers.
Over 70 percent of Republican caucus attendees were over 45, and 60 percent of Democratic voters were over 45. That's a formidable group, but they did not vote as a bloc. Older Democrats favored Clinton (nearly 3 to 1 over Obama); younger boomers narrowly favored Edwards. AARP Director of Governmental Affairs David Sloane notes that the health and financial security issues crucial to 50-plus Americans also attracted younger voters. "As candidates address the issues important to this country, they must ensure that solutions to these issues are fair to all generations," he said. "Those candidates who address the issues of affordable health care and lifetime financial security will continue to get the attention of all generations, as well as AARP members."

8. Here's what it means to the Republicans.
Gov. Mike Huckabee (35%) Smart campaigner played the authenticity card, energized the activist social conservatives and exploded in the past six weeks to score easy victory. Cash could become a problem as the campaign expands. Can he expand his appeal beyond the evangelical Christian base?
Gov. Mitt Romney (25%) Slick, expensive campaign and negative advertising backfired, setting up key test in New Hampshire. Key question: How much of his own money will he spend trying to recapture momentum?
Sen. Fred Thompson (14%) This campaign's on life support.
Sen. John McCain (13%) After spending no time in Iowa, his strong showing lifts his New Hampshire campaign. The awaited showdown with Romney becomes a three-way battle with Huckabee and Romney.
Rep. Ron Paul (10%) His libertarian message has galvanized contributors giving him the cash to hang on.
Mayor Rudy Giuliani (3%) Still leading Republican candidates in national polls, but still warming up. His big-state strategy is risky, but it looks better if Huckabee, Romney and McCain are still standing on Super-Duper Tuesday.
Rep. Duncan Hunter Out of money.

9. Here's what it means to the Democrats.
Sen. Barack Obama (38%) It's a head-to-head race with Clinton, and it should be a doozy. His call for change ignited the campaign, inspired younger voters in big numbers and catapulted him into a surprising victory in state that is 97 percent white.
Sen. John Edwards (30%) Short of cash, he needed to win. He'll carry a sharp, populist, anti-corporate message into New Hampshire, but he's limping badly.
Sen. Hillary Clinton (29%) This is a long campaign, her campaign is well financed, and the Clintons are nothing if not resilient. But she'll have to retool her message, hoping to capture the "change" message that resonated in Iowa Thursday.
Gov. Bill Richardson (2%) He pulled away from the second-tier candidates, but not by much.
Sen. Joe Biden (1%) Lightning never struck, and he shut down his campaign.
Sen. Chris Dodd (0%) He's quitting, moving his family back to Connecticut and resuming his neglected duties as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (0%) He's having too much fun, so he and his wife will keep on trucking.

10. The last word.
Warren Rudman, the former Republican New Hampshire senator, gets it. In an interview with the National Journal last month, he urged that primaries be revamped, except for Iowa and New Hampshire. "The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary really have served a valuable purpose. You really can get to the character of candidates. They can refuse to meet with the press. But they go to town meetings, and don't think that those people aren't as smart as we all are, because they are.

"They're following issues, and they're not afraid to ask tough, confrontational questions. I remember we did 111 or 112 town meetings with John McCain in 2000 [Rudman was his N.H. campaign chairman]. It was a regular free-for-all. And that will never happen if you get rid of those states as being early states. You'll have homogenized, heavy-money campaigns, with lots of television, not much retail politics. So I think whatever they do, they ought to preserve New Hampshire and Iowa for that reason, and then probably go to a series of regional primaries."