Summary:
• Voters soundly defeat tax initiatives known as TABOR.
• Opponents credit voter education campaign.
• Similar initiatives may rise in a dozen states in 2010.

Voters in Washington and Maine soundly rejected anti-tax initiatives in Tuesday’s election, handing victory to opponents who credited voters for realizing the measures would have caused disastrous cuts to government services.

In Maine, 60 percent of voters rejected the so-called TABOR II initiative, named for a small-government concept known as the “taxpayer bill of rights”; 40 percent voted in favor.

In Washington, Initiative 1033, sponsored by perennial anti-tax activist Tim Eyman, was rejected by 55 percent of voters; 45 percent voted for it.

“Voters have seen the impacts of the recession in their classrooms, communities and businesses, and understood that Eyman’s initiative would have made things worse,” AARP Washington state director Doug Shadel said.

Both initiatives sought to cap the amount of revenues that state, county and local governments could collect into their general funds. Unless voters specifically approved new spending, the caps would have been set to 2009 levels and could only increase to reflect rises in inflation and population growth. Revenues collected above the caps would have been used to reduce property taxes.

Proponents in both states said the intent was to limit government spending, a prospect that initially appealed to voters. As recently as two weeks ago, polls in both states showed a majority of voters in favor of the initiatives. But as Election Day neared, opponents reached more voters and support eroded.

In both states, coalitions used radio ads, phone banks, letters to the editor, and postcard mailings to convince voters that now wasn’t the right time to cap government revenues—with deep cuts already being made to health, education, services to older people and the disabled, and to the states’ workforce.

“Our members know that we all need good schools, safe roads and bridges and community libraries,” AARP Maine state director Nancy Kelleher said. “They studied the issue and dismissed TABOR.”

Maine voters rejected a similar measure in 2006 by 8 percentage points. This year, in the final days before the vote, current and former state officials came out against TABOR II. Attorney General Janet Mills announced publicly that she would vote against TABOR, calling it “burdensome and unnecessary.” Former Gov. Angus King spoke to 11,000 AARP members in a town hall teleconference and said TABOR was “a bad idea for Maine.”

Kelleher said voters were initially enamored of the prospect of tax cuts, but as the election neared, “people started really to begin to take a good look at TABOR, and it just didn’t make any sense.”

In Washington, a coalition made up of labor unions, businesses, environmental groups, education advocates, chambers of commerce, and health care organizations reached out to 300,000 voters in recent weeks.

“The thing that worked was telling voters what the actual costs would be of 1033,” Shadel said. “Telling the story of what this would really do in everyday life caused voters to overwhelmingly say, ‘We don’t want this here.’ ”

Victory did not come cheap. The Washington coalition spent more than $3 million, according to campaign finance reports.

TABOR efforts will reemerge next year. Eyman said he would be back with another attempt in Washington. In addition, TABOR initiatives may surface in a number of other states, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas and Wyoming.

Neal Thompson is an author and freelance writer living in Seattle.