Election 2004: How Older Voters Could Make a Difference

The Gray States—Older voters in just eight states—the battleground states with the largest proportions of voters age 55 and older—could well decide the outcome of the 2004 presidential election. Ingo Fast

On Nov. 2, older voters in a few swing states—and maybe even in just one—could well decide the outcome of the 2004 presidential election.

An analysis by the AARP Bulletin shows that older voters in just eight "gray" states—the battleground states with the largest proportions of voters age 55 and older—will, in all likelihood, play a decisive role in either handing George W. Bush a second term as president or sending Democratic challenger John Kerry to the White House.

The eight states, ranked by grayness, are Florida, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Iowa, Maine, Arkansas, Missouri and Ohio. [See chart for voting and demographic data in these states.]

Together the eight gray states have 22 percent of the nation’s 55-and-older population, 20 percent of its voting-age population and 101 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. On Election Day, if previous voting and turnout patterns apply, older voters are all but certain to account for a third or more of the ballots cast in each of these states.

"In some of the states that are in a statistical tie or close to it, that’s when the swing voter can tip things," says Lawrence Jacobs, a professor of political science at the University of Minnesota and an expert on public opinion and older Americans. "And that’s when the senior vote is particularly influential."

‘The Tried and True’

Historically, older Americans have had added clout at the polls because they are much more likely to vote than younger people, and this presidential election will be no exception.

Among the eight gray states, for example, consider Iowa, where 84 percent of eligible voters in the 65-to-74 age bracket made it to the polls in 2000. That was 20 points above the statewide average of 64 percent. In Missouri, voter turnout in the 65-to-74 age bracket was 81 percent—16 points above the statewide average of 65 percent.

Both the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been aggressively courting older voters and zeroing in on issues of prime importance to them, including health care, Medicare, prescription drug coverage and Social Security. With these issues front and center in the presidential campaign, public opinion analysts say, turnout numbers could climb even higher.

"You win elections with turnout, and seniors are renowned for their turnout," says Susan MacManus, a professor of political science at the University of South Florida and the author of Targeting Senior Voters: Campaign Outreach to Elders and Others With Special Needs. "While a lot of people are projecting an increase in younger voter turnout, it’s the senior voters who are the tried and true and can be counted on to show up and cast their ballots."

Tug of War

The Battleground 2004 Poll, a series of bipartisan public opinion surveys sponsored by George Washington University and jointly conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, shows the 2004 presidential contest—at a little more than a month before Election Day—to be extremely close and highly polarized.

The most recent survey, based on interviews with 1,012 likely voters and conducted Sept. 13-16, shows Bush at 49 percent, Kerry at 45 percent and independent Ralph Nader at 1 percent, with 5 percent undecided. (The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.) Among respondents 65 and older, however, Kerry led at 48 percent, with Bush at 45 percent, Nader at 1 percent and 6 percent undecided. Bush led in all other age groups: 18-34, 35-44 and 45-64.

In the previous Battleground 2004 Poll, conducted Aug. 15-17, respondents gave Kerry a strong edge over Bush when asked who would do a better job of making prescription drugs more affordable (Kerry +24 percent) and strengthening Social Security (Kerry +14 percent). Among respondents 65 and older, Kerry also showed strength, with a 16-point advantage on making prescription drugs more affordable and an 8-point advantage on strengthening Social Security.

Respondents gave Bush similarly sizable margins over Kerry on the key issues of terrorism and taxes. On who would do a better job of safeguarding the United States from a terrorist threat, respondents gave Bush a 17-point advantage over Kerry, and on holding the line on taxes, a 16-point advantage.

In 2000 Bush lost the 60-and-older vote to Vice President Al Gore 51 to 47 percent, according to data from exit polls, but the dynamic this year has been fluid, even fast-changing.

"It’s a tug of war for the heart and soul of the seniors," MacManus says. "It really is a battle between those two things: your own personal safety and homeland security versus your own personal quality of life and health care and prescription drugs and Social Security."

Lawrence Jacobs sees health care as the issue on which the election might turn, especially as it plays out in the battleground gray states. "If we get to the middle of October and the debate is on health care," he says, "there’s a good chance the president is going to lose the race because voters are giving Kerry such an advantage on this issue."

Too Close to Call

In what’s turning out to be a familiar pattern in modern presidential elections, the 2004 race, as it comes down to the wire, certainly seems likely to be a photo finish. Both sides seem braced for the unwelcome possibility that even after the election is over, the outcome may still be too close to call.

Robert A. Binstock, a professor of aging, health and society at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, isn’t so sure that all the wooing of older voters pays off. "I don’t think it’s a good investment," he says. "Although older persons vote at a higher rate, they tend to distribute their votes among the candidates in about the proportions as the other age groups do, with the exception of the youngest age group in the electorate."

Nonetheless, Binstock readily concedes that older voters in Florida may have handed the state—and the presidential election—to Bush in 2000. "You could say that older people swung the election in Florida by being confused and voting on the butterfly ballot for [independent] Pat Buchanan," he says. "That was probably the critical factor in the election."