Campaign Watch: Deciding the Next President

American University professor Allan J. Lichtman has developed a combination of historical facts and factors that together provide a context for the presidential campaign and an early indicator of the results.

The following is one of the 13 Keys to the White House he has devised. It takes a true or false answer. In the commentary section, you can also share your views on the related question.

Key 6 (Long-term economy): Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Tell us what you think. Do you believe our current economy is in a recession? Isn't it true most presidents experience an economic slowdown in their second-term? How is this important in making your overall choice for president? Once we have compiled your answers to all 13 keys, we will do a follow-up report on the results.

More: Campaign Watch: Keys to the White House | The 13 Keys