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Campaign Watch: Deciding the Next President

What do you know about Presidential campaigns?

Tell us what you really know about our October "What I Really Know" topic: Presidential campaigns. E-mail your essay of up to 400 words to whatiknow@aarp.org. Or mail it to What I Really Know, AARP Bulletin, 601 E St. NW, Washington, DC 20049. Please include your name, phone number and e-mail address. Deadline for October submissions: September 1, 2008.

American University professor Allan J. Lichtman has developed a combination of historical facts and factors that together provide a context for the presidential campaign and an early indicator of the results.

The following is one of the 13 Keys to the White House he has devised. It takes a true or false answer. In the commentary section, you can also share your views on the related question.


Key 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. True or False?

Tell us what you think. Do you believe our current economy is in a recession? Isn't it true most presidents experience an economic slowdown in their second-term? How is this important in making your overall choice for president? Once we have compiled your answers to all 13 keys, we will do a follow-up report on the results.

More: Campaign Watch: Keys to the White House | The 13 Keys

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