Tell us what you really know about our October "What I Really Know" topic: Presidential campaigns. E-mail your essay of up to 400 words to whatiknow@aarp.org. Or mail it to What I Really Know, AARP Bulletin, 601 E St. NW, Washington, DC 20049. Please include your name, phone number and e-mail address. Deadline for October submissions: September 1, 2008.
American University professor Allan J. Lichtman has developed a combination of historical facts and factors that together provide a context for the presidential campaign and an early indicator of the results.
The following is one of the 13 Keys to the White House he has devised. It takes a true or false answer. In the commentary section, you can also share your views on the related question.

Key 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. True or False?
Tell us what you think. Is it important to avoid competition leading up to the party nomination? Does competition divide a party or offer more choices and options? Once we have compiled your answers to all 13 keys, we will do a follow-up report on the results.
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