Campaign Watch: A West Virginia Speed Bump

Photos by Emanuel Dunand, Joe Raedle and Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

A funny thing happened on the way to Sen. Barack Obama’s march to the Democratic nomination: He was thumped. Running out of time and money, Hillary Clinton still scored an overwhelming 40-percentage point victory in West Virginia. That propelled her campaign on to next week’s Kentucky primary, which she expects to win. Obama, meanwhile, concentrated on the general election campaign and the likely Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain.

The race continues. Next stops: Kentucky, where Clinton leads by 20 points in early polls, and Oregon, where Obama leads by over 20 points in early polls. Here are the highlights:

The delegate count

The calendar
•    May 20: Oregon (52 delegates) and Kentucky (51 delegates)
•    May 31: The Democrats' National Rules and Bylaws Committee meets to consider the validity of contested and uncounted primary votes in Florida and Michigan.
•    June 1: Puerto Rico (55 delegates)
•    June 3: Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates)

The delegate hunt
Obama has a 1,883 to 1,717 delegate lead, according to RealClearPolitics.com, an independent political website. The winner needs 2,025, but neither candidate can win the nomination without superdelegates, the 796 state and federal office holders and party dignitaries who can make their decisions for any reason and at any time. Obama has picked up endorsements from 27 superdelegates in the past week, a major development as he passed Clinton in superdelegate votes. Still, 240 superdelegates remain uncommitted. There are 189 delegates at stake in the five remaining primaries. Because of Democrats' proportional voting, Clinton will win only 15 of the 28 delegates at stake in West Virginia. But Obama remains beyond Clinton’s reach unless a major revelation or development between now and the convention prompts a major shift by the superdelegates.

The Democratic Party Rules and Bylaws Committee meets May 31 to discuss delegates from Michigan and Florida, where primary votes were disallowed when state officials held their primaries in February and March, earlier than allowed. Neither candidate campaigned in Florida or Michigan, but Clinton has argued that votes should be counted. Although the primaries were declared nonbinding, she outpolled Obama in Florida and won in Michigan, where she was the only named candidate on the ballot.

For Barack Obama: Pursuing the big picture
Obama spent primary day talking economics in Missouri and Michigan, two critical must-win states for Democrats in the fall election, a reflection that his campaign is already looking to the larger challenge of the general election. His campaign has launched a 50-state voter registration drive, another initiative in its effort to attract and energize new voters by November.  

For Hillary Clinton: What’s there to lose?
Buoyed by a lopsided West Virginia victory, Clinton vowed to continue her campaign. There are three factors at work here. First, it’s still a very close race, with fewer than 200 delegates separating the two candidates. Second, anything can happen. The 796 superdelegates can change their votes any time until the convention in September. Third, as long as her campaign stays active, she can continue to solicit campaign funds, which in turn can be used to reimburse her for the $11.4 million she has loaned to her campaign.

Leading indicators: Is there a following wind?
Democrats’ prevailing winds continued to sweep across the Deep South as they picked up another congressional seat Republicans had held for over a decade. Mississippi Democrat Travis Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis to fill a 1st District vacancy despite campaign appearances by Vice President Dick Cheney and former candidate Mike Huckabee, and campaign ads that linked Childers to Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The vacancy was created when seven-term Rep. Roger Wicker was picked to succeed retired Sen. Trent Lott. Republican Wicker won his last election by 66 percent of the vote. George W. Bush won the district with 62 percent. It’s the third high-profile Democratic victory this year. On Saturday, May 3, Louisiana voters chose Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux over Republican ex-state Rep. Woody Jenkins, making him the first Democrat to win the Baton Rouge district since 1974. In March, Illinois Democrat Rep. Bill Foster was elected to succeed retired House Speaker Dennis Hastert.

The last word
“I will work my heart out for the Democratic nominee.” – Hillary Clinton after scoring an overwhelming victory in West Virginia on Tuesday