Be a Pundit: An Armchair Guide to Watching the Election

Photo by Ron Chapple/Corbis

After two years, a record $2.4 billion in costs and uncounted polls, Campaign 2008 reaches a climax on election night. Whichever candidate accumulates at least 270 electoral votes will take office in January. He will be joined by a Congress that, due to retirements, scandals and other vagaries of political life, will have plenty of fresh faces in both the House and Senate.

The new leaders will take office at a time of national crisis that many compare with the challenges Franklin D. Roosevelt faced when he became president in 1933 during the Great Depression. Intense interest in this campaign, already demonstrated by millions of newly registered voters and a surge in early voting, makes Tuesday night’s returns must-see TV for millions in the United States and around the globe.

Below is a viewer’s guide to early returns that could help you predict the final results:

Is it a Barack Obama landslide?

Democrat Barack Obama is the first African American nominated for the presidency by a major party—a momentous first, but not the only change he’s brought to the electoral landscape. Obama has been aided by anti-Republican sentiment stemming from President Bush’s historically low approval ratings, by the financial crisis and by demographic change in key states that Republicans have usually won with ease. Obama has raised at least $600 million, a record, and directed much of it to turning Republican “red” states won by Bush into Democratic “blue.” If he succeeds, Obama could win with a robust Electoral College margin similar to Bill Clinton’s two-to-one victory in 1992.

A crucial state is Virginia, where no Democratic presidential nominee has won since Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide in 1964. Population growth and demographic change in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington have helped Democrats make deep inroads in the Old Dominion, where voters have elected two successive Democratic governors and in 2006 sent Democrat Jim Webb to the Senate.

Polls in Virginia close at 7 p.m. EST, and the returns will give a strong clue to the outcome of the presidential contest. If Obama wins easily, he probably will have a good night. Indiana and Kentucky are other “red” states to watch, with polls in some parts of the Hoosier State closing as early as 6 p.m. EST. Most Florida polling places are scheduled to close at 7 p.m., but networks will be reluctant to “call” this difficult state until all votes are counted.

Early indications of a possible Democratic landslide will come from Indiana, in Democratic Rep. Baron Hill’s fourth rematch against Republican Mike Sodrel, and from Kentucky, where Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth is running against the woman he barely beat in 2006, Republican former Rep. Anne Northup. If both Democrats pull out victories, a landslide looks to be looming.

Is it another John McCain comeback?

If Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, R, North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R, and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, R, are reelected, Arizona Sen. John McCain could make it a long night for Obama. Then there’s Pennsylvania with its 21 electoral votes. Democrats have carried the Keystone State in the last four elections, but with steadily smaller margins. Six months ago, Pennsylvania looked ripe for McCain, especially after Pennsylvania Democrats chose Hillary Clinton over Obama in the primary. But the faltering economy and Bush’s unpopularity (71 percent of the state’s voters disapprove of his job performance) changed the dynamics. Polls show that Obama leads among Pennsylvania independents, a group that McCain hoped to entice. Nonetheless, McCain or his vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have visited the state some four dozen times, hoping to pull off an upset. If McCain gets Pennsylvania, he’ll be on his way to a better-than-expected election night.

How goes Ohio?

No modern-era Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. It’s not impossible, but it will be pretty darn hard for McCain to pile up 270 electoral votes without winning Ohio’s 20. Both the McCain and Obama campaigns have targeted the Buckeye State, making more than 250 appearances between them since January 2007. Only two Democratic presidential candidates in the past century have won more than 50 percent of the vote there—Johnson in the 1964 landslide and Bill Clinton, twice.

For the third straight presidential election, disputes over Ohio voter registration could complicate the outcome. Some 200,000 new voter registrations have been challenged because of mismatches in their data. The Democratic secretary of state and state attorney general say all is well, but Republicans have been running ads and filing lawsuits. If Ohio is close all night and undecided at the end, it could throw a monkey wrench into the entire election. But if Obama wins the state early, he’s well on his way.

Watch races in Ohio’s 1st, 2nd, 15th and 16th districts for early clues. These four seats have been held by Republicans for decades. Democratic victories would indicate a heavy Democratic turnout and portend a strong showing by Obama. Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st District is a veteran Republican with a solid base, but his race against Democrat Steve Driehaus is considered a tossup.

What’s election night without Florida drama?

Once again, Florida, an early East Coast state, could be in the spotlight. A number of factors make this tricky territory for both candidates, not the least of which are older voters. At 72, McCain would be the oldest president to take office in history, which gives him natural support from Florida retiree voters. Older voters are McCain’s strongest demographic. In addition, the Republican organization in Florida may be the best GOP machine in the nation.

Obama has countered, however, by registering new, mostly young, voters, especially in central Florida. And Florida has a sizable African American population that has been energized by the Obama campaign. Interestingly, Cuban Republicans have traditionally helped GOP candidates tremendously, but Latinos are split 50-50 between Obama and McCain this time, according to polls.

If Obama wins Florida, he is poised to make significant inroads into Republican territory. But if McCain’s older voters come out in their usual high numbers and Obama’s youth brigade fails to materialize, McCain could hold on to this critical state and portend a long election night.

Sarah vs. Hillary. How did women vote?

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton’s groundbreaking bid for the Democratic nomination and McCain’s bid to lure Clinton voters by choosing Palin as his running mate set up a “year of the woman” story line that has captivated the media and the electorate. Palin is the first woman since Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 to run for national office on a major party ticket. Despite the controversy she sometimes generates on the campaign trail, she’s wowed Republican crowds and energized GOP activists.

The women’s vote isn’t monolithic. Although the “gender gap” usually refers to the Democrats’ overall advantage among women voters, key groups of women often vote Republican. Among white women, for example, Bush edged Democrat Al Gore in 2000, according to network exit polls. In 2004, Bush expanded his margin and beat Democrat John Kerry by 55 to 44 among white women.

Married white women with children can swing presidential elections. If exit polls show Obama besting McCain among white women (he’s expected to easily carry African Americans and Hispanics), there is a strong chance the Illinois senator will be elected.

The swinging suburbs—but which way?

For years Republicans could rely on solid support among middle-class and upper-middle-class suburbanites, but Clinton’s two wins broke the GOP lock, and this time around the dominance of cultural conservatives in the national Republican Party has turned off many moderates and independents. Bellwether suburban counties in such battleground states as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado will determine which candidate grabs those states’ electoral votes.

Here are the suburban enclaves to watch on the networks’ fancy touch-screen maps:

• The single most important may be Loudoun County, Va., west of Dulles Airport, an outer suburb of Washington that grew exponentially with the technology industry. Virginia Democrats eked out wins there in the most recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections, shifting the allegiance of a county that in 2004 voted strongly for Bush. If Obama runs even here, he will probably take Virginia.

• To carry Pennsylvania, McCain must hold Obama’s margin down in the four suburban counties around Philadelphia.

• In Ohio, Obama is trying to break through in Hamilton County near Cincinnati—long a GOP bastion that has trended increasingly Democratic.

• If the presidential race is tight and hinges on Western battlegrounds, look to Arapahoe County near Denver as an indicator of whether “purple” Colorado tips red or blue.

Also watch these early suburban races:

• Virginia, 10th District (Loudoun County). Rep. Frank Wolf, R, should win his 15th term. An upset would mean a big Democratic night in a traditionally Republican state.

• Ohio, 1st and 2nd Districts (Hamilton County). Both districts have deep Republican roots. Democratic wins there would indicate a big suburban swing in a key state.

• Pennsylvania, 18 District (Pittsburgh suburbs). Rep. Tim Murphy, R, is favored to win his fourth term.

• Pennsylvania, 8th District. A loss by first-term Rep. Patrick Murphy, D, would show Republican strength in the Philadelphia suburbs, good news for McCain.

Is it a Democratic Senate stampede?

Watch Kentucky, North Carolina and Alaska. Democrats will extend their current two-vote Senate margin, but will they get the 60 seats necessary to thwart Republican attempts to block legislation with filibusters? Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens’ recent conviction on corruption charges puts in jeopardy the reelection of an incumbent who has been in the Senate for 42 years. For those who can’t stay awake to learn Stevens’ fate, earlier signals will come from skin-tight races in the East.

The marquee race involves Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who is fighting for his life in a contest many Democrats consider payback for the Republicans’ successful targeting in 2004 of Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota. McConnell’s defeat by Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford would be a severe psychological blow to congressional Republicans, who have been starved for good news since they lost control of Capitol Hill in 2006. Many, but not all, polls in Kentucky are scheduled to close at 6 p.m. EST.

Another cliffhanger—and potential harbinger of a 60-seat Democratic majority—is Elizabeth Dole’s bid to retain her Senate seat in North Carolina. Dole’s popularity sank with questions about her effectiveness, and Obama has flooded North Carolina with money and workers to turn this demographically changing state blue. A huge African American turnout could be the final blow for Dole. The same dynamic may hold true in Georgia, where Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss also faces unusually tough odds.

These contests aren’t the only Senate seats Democrats hope to pick up, but they are tough ones that would be needed to gain the 60-seat majority. Democrats expect to capture Republican seats in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado. But Republicans expect to hold on to seats in Alabama, Tennessee, Idaho, Mississippi, Wyoming, South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Maine. Contests in Minnesota and Oregon are too close to call.

Are Northeastern Republicans extinct?

The so-called Rockefeller wing of the Republican Party is more like a single feather these days, with the conservative branch of the party holding sway over most candidates and elected officials. A tiny band of Northeastern Republicans clings to that middle-of-the-road tradition. Among them are veteran Reps. Christopher Shays of Connecticut, Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania and Mark Kirk of Illinois. You can also include in this group Maine's Sen. Susan Collins, whose ads have ignored the words “Republican” and “Bush” and stressed her independence. Should any of these incumbents lose, it would further diminish the embattled band of Northeastern Republicans.

Another factor for the wing’s fate is in upstate New York, where Republican Jim Walsh is retiring from the House. Democrat Dan Maffei, a former congressional staffer, is leading Republican Dale Sweetland for the seat. In a “normal” year, Sweetland would likely be favored. All indications are that Maffei, a former staffer for the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Rep. Charles Rangel, will return to Washington. Republicans will also lose their seat on Staten Island in the wake of Vito Fosella’s drunk driving and illegitimate child scandal, and possibly one other, Randy Kuhl in upstate New York. That would drop to two—Reps. Peter King of Long Island and John McHugh of the far north—the number of Republicans among the 29 members representing Rockefeller’s New York.

Will older Americans make or break campaigns?

Age 50-plus voters are consistently the most reliable voting group and for the first time may constitute more than half of the nation’s electorate. They may make or break the presidential campaigns this year. Instinctively drawn to McCain, many older voters who have watched their retirement portfolios decline over the past few weeks now find Obama more attractive than they did earlier in the election season. That’s partially due to dissatisfaction with Republicans in general.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of registered people who actually voted in the presidential election of 2004 was highest among those ages 65 to 74, at 70.8 percent. Back then, voters under age 24 had the lowest turnout at 41.9 percent. While more young voters are energized this year, older voters will still be a critical swing bloc. In 2000 older voters went for Democrat Al Gore over Bush (but not by enough to avoid the near deadlock in Florida). In 2004 they swung to Bush over Democrat John Kerry.

Look again to North Carolina’s Senate race for an early indication. If older voters abandon Elizabeth Dole, 72, in favor of Democrat Kay Hagan, it will indicate that the mature electorate may be looking to younger leadership. Also watch results in Pennsylvania, the state with the oldest population in the nation.

Wild things

Just to spice up election night, here are some wild card races that should be fun to watch. Look at Minnesota Republican Michele Bachmann’s race against once-unknown Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. This one was a slam dunk for the GOP until Bachmann went on national television to imply that Barack Obama might be “anti-American” and called for an investigation into which members of Congress hold “anti-American views.” Now the race is a dead heat.

As if the Fossella scandal weren’t enough to push the Staten Island race into the wild column, the Republican vying to replace him has problems of his own. Robert Straniere recently closed his gourmet hot dog shop in Manhattan after only a year in business. He was sued by one of the company’s founders, who said that Straniere didn’t provide him with the proper amount of shares in the business. And Fossella has withheld his endorsement of Straniere. (Is that a good thing or a bad thing?) This seat could go Democratic for the first time in recent memory.

And two congressional cousins with a famous Democratic surname, Reps. Mark Udall of Colorado and Tom Udall of New Mexico, apparently think blood is thicker than (political) water. The two, who are both running for the Senate, told the New York Times they are “pulling” for their distant cousin, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon, who is in a difficult race.

Joe Biden gets a chance to act out the old adage of voting “early and often,” with an opportunity to vote for himself twice. He’s on the Delaware ballot as vice presidential candidate with Barack Obama and also as a senator from Delaware seeking his seventh term. If he wins both contests, he’ll have a choice to make. This hasn’t happened since 1988 when the late Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, D, simultaneously sought election as vice president with Michael Dukakis and reelection as U.S. senator from Texas. Bentsen lost the VP race, but returned as a senator.

Marie Cocco is a nationally syndicated columnist for the Washington Post Writers Group. Elaine S. Povich is a freelance writer whose latest book is a biography of Sen. John McCain.