By Larry Eichel

May 7, 2008 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) --
On the last big day of the primary season, Barack Obama won more delegates and a lot more votes than Hillary Rodham Clinton, seemingly denying her any realistic path to the Democratic presidential nomination.

In the end, that may be all that matters.

To be sure, the results from North Carolina and Indiana indicated that vast segments of the party retain serious reservations about having the 46-year-old Illinois senator as their presidential candidate.

But Obama's convincing win in North Carolina, combined with Clinton's narrow victory in Indiana, moved him quite a bit closer to becoming the nominee.

For the Obama campaign, this was a reenergizing moment, his first real step forward in a very long time.

An important day was crossed off the calendar, and his delegate lead hadn't diminished. Indeed, it grew.

In terms of popular vote, he made up most of the 215,000 votes he lost to Clinton in Pennsylvania two weeks ago.

Obama's supporters will argue that the North Carolina victory, his first significant one since Feb. 19 in Wisconsin, shows something more, something that matters for the general election -- namely, his resilience.

The victory came, after all, after the damaging revival of the controversy over his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and the wound he inflicted on himself by talking before the April 22 Pennsylvania primary about "bitter" residents of small towns.

Obama is now fewer than 200 delegates away from 2,025, the current magic number to clinch the nomination.

With only 217 pledged delegates left to be won in the remaining primaries, it is hard to see what Clinton can do now to transform the race to her advantage. Yesterday offered her last, best chance for a "game-changer," to use the buzz-phrase of the last two weeks.

Her strategists' argument has been that she is the more electable of the two Democrats. But that argument is only as good as the latest poll, which makes it a lot squishier than the hard delegate count.

Recent surveys show both Clinton and Obama leading Republican John McCain by narrow margins, although Clinton does better in some of the battleground states.

Assuming Obama continues to pile up endorsements from the undeclared superdelegates -- and there is little doubt that will happen -- he'll soon be in a truly commanding position.

That position may be sufficiently commanding to enable him to accept, should he choose, a Clinton-friendly resolution of the mess surrounding the banned Michigan and Florida delegations. The subject is to come before a panel of the Democratic National Committee on May 31.

By that point, the race would be all but over.

Yesterday's outcome, even as it reinforced Obama's front-runner status, demonstrated plenty of reasons for his party to be concerned moving forward -- and signs of the magnitude of the task before him if he becomes the nominee.

The racial chasm underlying the Clinton-Obama choice was as vast as ever.

According to the exit polls, Clinton won 60 percent of the white vote in Indiana, 66 percent of white women, and 72 percent of whites over age 60. Obama took 92 percent of Indiana's black vote.

In North Carolina, Clinton captured 59 percent of the white vote, 64 percent of white women, and 67 percent of whites over age 60. Obama's share of the black vote was 91 percent.

And in both states, a big chunk of voters said they wouldn't vote Democratic in the fall if their preferred candidate were not nominated.

In Indiana, 28 percent said they would vote for McCain or stay home if Obama became the nominee, with 26 percent saying the same thing if Clinton got the nod.

In North Carolina, the numbers were similar.

It's a good bet that not all those people will feel the same way in November, when confronted with the choice between a Democrat and a Republican. But it has to be a real worry for party leaders.

Obama also continued to have problems with white blue-collar workers.

All these elements are likely to dictate what the ultimate nominee does, once circumstances allow the party to start assessing the damage, healing the wounds, and trying to pull together for the fight against McCain in the fall.

The primaries will continue. Six more are scheduled between now and June 3, and Clinton said last night that she would press on.

But not enough delegates are left on the board to give her a chance of changing the math or the dynamic, barring some shocking revelation. The current expectation is that the two candidates will split the final contests, assuming Clinton can raise the money to keep going.

Last night in Indianapolis, in a speech that had a less combative and more valedictory tone than usual, she again asked her supporters for money.

The race is not over. But the end is in sight.

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Final Primaries

Tuesday: West Virginia, 28 pledged delegates.

May 20: Kentucky

and Oregon, a total

of 103 delegates.

June 1: Puerto Rico,

55 pledged delegates.

June 3: Montana and South Dakota, 31 pledged delegates between them.


Contact senior writer Larry Eichel at 215-854-2415 or leichel@phillynews.com.

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