2010 governor hopefuls tread carefully in budget crisis

Peter Hecht

Jun. 9, 2009 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- Past and potential future Gov. Jerry Brown may have played it safest when he passed on a question from a San Diego radio host recently on how he would solve California's historic budget crisis.

"You certainly don't -- a year and a half before you get going -- tell everybody what you would do, because that's a recipe for failure," he quipped.

As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger warns that the state is fast running out of cash and calls for budget cuts to cure a $24 billion deficit, his would-be replacements face risky political decisions in spelling out how they would handle a crisis unfolding long before they would take office in January 2011.

By then, the state's current fiscal meltdown will have been resolved, papered over or reduced in scale, or will have morphed into a ghastly new form.

Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento, said candidates failing to offer "intelligent, careful explanations" on the budget mess are better off "being silent than simplistic."

But he added: "At some point, to be a credible candidate, you're going to have to address the crisis and what you, as governor, will do about it."

That's the perilous part.

Former eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) CEO and Republican candidate Meg Whitman campaigns across California, advocating job cuts to net a 10 percent "head count" reduction in California's 345,000-person state workforce.

But she got a brushback from Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear, who suggested such across-the-board cuts are all but impossible.

"The governor only has authority over contracts with 100,000 state employees paid through the general fund," McLear said. "About two-thirds of those are in Corrections. So it's unclear how you cut 30,000 positions without affecting public safety."

Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a fellow Republican candidate, declares that as governor he would tell state agency and commission heads: "You've got two weeks to go through every dollar, every person that works for you and streamline and optimize."

But his details were sorely lacking for political observer John J. Pitney Jr., professor of government and politics at Claremont McKenna College.

"It's a process answer," Pitney said. "He is not offering specific proposals. … The question a voter would come up with is, 'If it's that easy, why hasn't it been done?' "

Democratic gubernatorial Gavin Newsom trumpets his plan slashing 1,600 jobs and $438 million from San Francisco's budget as a model for how he pledges to solve California's woes without raising taxes or gutting vital services. "This is what the state needs to do," Newsom said.

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, another potential Democratic candidate, also casts himself as a civic belt-tightener. And, in a contradictory vein, he vows to fight "tooth and nail" to keep state money "flowing to our cities."

But Dan Schnur, director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, said troubles may loom as "the two mayors will be making news … by making very difficult and unpopular decisions about balancing very nasty budget deficits." He said a backlash to local actions may sink their statewide hopes.

Brown, who has yet to declare whether he will give up his attorney general post to run for governor in 2010, told The Bee that he advocates selling off state assets, consolidating programs and promoting job sharing to reduce layoffs.

But he said detailed fiscal plans now, "amid the worst downturn for California ever," can wildly skew what the state needs in tax revenue and program cuts when the next governor is in office and beyond.

"You can't assume that the trough of this recession is the measure of what the size of your government would be," Brown said.

Veteran Democratic political strategist and public policy lawyer Darry Sragow said details of potential fiscal elixirs are going to be devilish for any candidate who ventures beyond sound-bites.

"There is no superficial answer to solving the budget crisis," Sragow said. "And there is a huge gap between what needs to happen and what voters want to hear. Few of these candidates will try to leap across that cavern."

So far, Republican candidate and former Rep. Tom Campbell has put out the most detailed plan.

When the budget deficit stood at $21 billion, Campbell -- Schwarzenegger's former finance director and ex-dean of UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business -- unveiled a nine-page, single-spaced document on how to come up with the money.

He risked the ire of conservatives in the GOP primary by calling for a one-year, 32-cent per gallon hike in state gas taxes. He signaled a fight with employee unions -- a powerful force in a general election -- by calling for a 15 percent salary "give back" by state employees and threatening furlough orders as governor if the unions don't agree.

"The guy is gutsy. You've got to hand him that," said Jaime Regalado, director of the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles. "He is the most detailed, willing to take on the naysayers on the right and the naysayers on the left."

But Regalado said voters' eyes may well gloss over when it comes to other meticulous budget details that Campbell outlines. "Nobody takes somebody who is too smart too seriously," Regalado said.

Avoiding naming specific cuts, Whitman says she would order some 400 state managers to "streamline regulations, collapse departments and lay off middle management and superfluous overhead."

Poizner speaks of forming three "SWAT teams" to target spending cuts in education, prisons and health care. But he added recently: "I'm running for governor. I'm not running for chief accountant."

That appears to be the common political calculation.

"Most of the candidates are playing it very, very vaguely," Schnur said. "Whatever points you gain for honesty by laying out a detailed plan for solving a $24 billion budget deficit are swamped by the political problems it causes.

"You might get a few points for courage. But that's nothing compared to the political hits you take."

Call Peter Hecht, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5539.

Newstex ID: 35606693