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High Fares Take a Holiday

Unexpected deals are available for flexible fliers

By: Marla Matzer Rose | Source: The Columbus Dispatch | - November 24, 2008

So much for that forecast. Airlines actually are rolling back prices in many places, thanks to a steep decline in oil prices and a bad economy.

They're not $10 Skybus tickets—and flights still aren't as plentiful as before—but the bargains are there for those who are flexible and quick.

Flights from Columbus to Los Angeles and Las Vegas during the next couple of months have been going for less than $300 roundtrip, including taxes and fees, on several airlines for nonpeak travel. That's a decrease of more than $100 in recent weeks. And travel agents say they've seen roundtrip fares as low as $350 to prime vacation destinations such as Key West, Fla., for the winter.

Just a few months ago, no one expected to see these kinds of fares again, especially before a major holiday. Airlines were slashing service and raising fees in the face of crushing oil costs. Now, airlines are eager to fill seats in the face of lower demand as the economy tanks.

Low fares on the days surrounding Thanksgiving and Christmas are going to be much harder to come by, although travel agents say there still could be bargains for those willing to travel on the holiday itself or at less desirable times, such as early morning or late evening.

Still up for a quick out-of-town trip over Thanksgiving? Recently, you could get a roundtrip ticket to New Orleans for $175 on US Airways (NYSE:LCC) leaving Thanksgiving Day and returning on Saturday. Not long ago, that itinerary probably would have cost you about $400, according to travel agents. To book for $175, you'd have to leave at 6 a.m. in both directions and endure a several-hour layover, but that's the trade-off for a rock-bottom fare.

"I've been surprised at the fares. There are some really good ones out there," said Denis Carvill, principal of Columbus-based consultancy Erne Aviation.

Carvill said he recently booked a one-way ticket on Southwest from Las Vegas for $140, about half of what he had expected to pay. His adult son recently considered visiting Carvill's hometown of Dublin, Ireland, in January, and found a fare of $499 roundtrip from New York, including taxes and fees.

"For that, I thought maybe I should look at going," he said with a laugh.

Robert Mann, a Port Washington, N.Y.-based aviation consultant, was among the many observers who this summer predicted "major ticket-price increases, which will probably impact the lowest fares more on a percentage basis."

He stuck by his assessment to a degree last week, saying that, overall, he's not seeing a drop in airfares nationally.

"When you consider the effect of ancillary fees that have been added for things like checked bags, the real out-of-pocket cost is actually substantially higher in many cases," Mann said.

However, he added that there are different dynamics in each market. For example, low-fare carrier AirTran (NYSE:AAI) Airways began service this month at Port Columbus, and that has helped bring down fares.

Travel agents are seeing the lower-fare trend locally, and urge clients to book quickly if they see a great deal.

"If you find a good fare, buy it," said Susan Schneider of Twin Horizons Travel. "I can't tell you how many times a person has waited to book when we told them it was a great fare, only to see it go up again."

Angel Conlon, manager of Bexley Travel, agreed.

"You can't make predictions about fares anymore. They seem to be all over the board, and they change frequently," Conlon said.

The possible downside of much-lower fares is that airlines could decide to reduce service even more next year. Already, Port Columbus will have 22 percent fewer flights this December compared with the same month a year ago because of the demise of Skybus Airlines and cuts in service by other carriers, such as American Airlines (NYSE:AMR) and Delta Air Lines. (NYSE:DAL)

For example, Delta cut all its nonstop flights from Columbus to Florida this year in the face of competition from Southwest and Skybus. Across the country, airlines cut back heavily on flights to leisure destinations such as Florida and Las Vegas, where they typically can't charge as high a fare.

"The flip side of getting a great deal is that carriers may not be willing to provide the service for the long term," Mann said. "The only thing worse than high fares is no service at all. But I think all things considered, Columbus has a good situation with its mix of carriers."

The economy likely will remain a wild card, though.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see the airlines cut back more if passenger numbers really drop," said Bob Harrell of New York-based aviation consulting firm Harrell Associates. "They're scared right now. Everybody's scared right now."

mrose@dispatch.com

Newstex ID: KRTB-0147-29839537

 

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