Social Security beneficiaries may get a cost-of-living increase next year after all.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., announced Monday that when Congress returns in September, he’ll introduce emergency legislation to provide a benefit hike for 2010. He didn’t say how much of an increase he’d seek, or what form it might take.

Unless lawmakers do act, the odds for a fatter check appear to be bleak for an estimated 51 million beneficiaries, because inflation has been in negative territory in recent months.

That could mean that for the first time since 1975, when Social Security began raising benefits to counter inflation, older adults won’t get a bump up in their monthly benefit amount for 2010 and possibly 2011, according to projections by Social Security trustees. A final decision is expected in October.

Without a benefit hike, there could be a slight decrease in payments for millions of people who have Medicare Part D prescription drug premiums deducted from their checks since those premiums are expected to rise next year. According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Part D premiums will rise on average by $2 in 2010 though others may see much more of an increase depending on their plan.

“Faced with these realities it would simply be unacceptable for seniors on fixed incomes to not receive additional income in the coming year, something that hasn’t happened in over three decades,” Sanders said in a statement. “As soon as Congress gets back in session, I will be introducing emergency legislation that will provide seniors with financial support during this coming year.”

Adjustment decision due in October

The Social Security Administration won’t officially announce whether there will be a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) until mid-October, said spokesman Dan Moraski. Last year, the COLA rose by 5.8 percent for 2009, the most in 26 years.

The COLA, which is tied to inflation, measures the Consumer Price Index for the third quarter of this year, July through September, compared with the same quarter last year. The Consumer Price Index represents the cost of a “basket” of consumer goods and services. As of this month, it was showing inflation to be in negative territory, in part due to lower energy prices this year.

But while the cost of certain goods and services may be lower, medical and drug expenses continue to rise. That means retirees and other beneficiaries will have to stretch their monthly benefit—the average check is $1,153—even more to cover out-of-pocket costs that outpace inflation each year.

According to a Towers Perrin study in January, retirees will face a 5 percent increase in health care costs this year. People under 65 and not yet eligible for Medicare can expect to pay $13,308 in out-of-pocket costs for family coverage, 66 percent more than they paid five years ago.

“While inflation is down over all, medical inflation, which comprises 30 percent of seniors’ average expenses, is still going up,” said Dave Certner, legislative policy director at AARP. “Combined with losses in savings, investments and home values, seniors feel like they’re falling further and further behind.”

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