Collins forecasts stable county tax rate

Matthew Spina

Apr. 23, 2009 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- County Executive Chris Collins said Wednesday that his four-year budget forecast includes no increase in the property tax rate, so it should remain at its $5.03 average through 2012.

Collins said he assumes, however, that the state will shift no new costs to counties over those years -- even after federal stimulus funds run out.

"Where is the state going to be in two years, when the stimulus money is gone?" he asked. "It does scare me a bit what the state will do in cost-shifting back to the county."

During adoption of the current state budget, state leaders were roundly criticized for failing to cut spending. State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli predicted the state will continue to wrestle with budget deficits until leaders spend within their means.

Collins has been shaping a new four-year forecast that he hopes will persuade the state-appointed control board to revert to advisory status. He wants to assure the board that Erie County can balance its budgets through 2012, just as it has done for the past four years.

He will bank heavily on the additional federal aid that is helping counties pay for their Medicaid programs. Erie County is to receive $74.2 million over 27 months, and Collins has signaled he will use the money to cover a potential $50 million decline in sales tax revenue over four years.

While his four-year plan, weeks in the making, has not been made public, he said he has discussed aspects with control board officials. Collins told reporters Wednesday that he doesn't expect to raise the property tax rate above the current $5.03 for every $1,000 per assessed value, even after he got a smaller tax increase than he wanted for this year.

Collins and Joseph Goodell, the control board's vice chairman, spoke at a news conference to herald their agreement to let the control board borrow about $100 million to fix county roads, bridges and buildings.

The county had been blocked from borrowing the money for more than two years because of a standoff with the control board over which entity should sell bonds -- the control board, because of its superior credit rating, or the county, as it always has done.

The pact sealed in recent days calls for the control board to sell one-year bond anticipation notes, which the control board will refinance annually for five years--unless the elected leaders can obtain the right to take over the loan during that time. Collins wants to prevent the control board from taking on the long-term debt that would ensure it remains for decades.

With a satisfactory four-year plan, Collins hopes to persuade the control board to revert to advisory status. In advisory status, the control board cannot block the county from borrowing money or from refinancing the bond anticipation notes.

"Hopefully, this is the start of a new relationship with the county," Goodell said. "We, too, would like to go to advisory status."

But when commenting about the likelihood that Collins' new four-year plan will persuade the control board to go soft, Goodell said, "The devil is in the details."

mspina@buffnews.com

Newstex ID: KRTB-0019-34349276