Report N.D. has large loss of older residents

Chuck Haga

Jul. 10, 2008 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- You know that North Dakota is losing young people. The youthful out-migration has been going on for decades, causing fits among state planners, boosters and policy-makers.

But this may come as a mild surprise: The state's population of baby boomers is declining, too.

The boomers, born from 1946 to 1964, have started to decline nationally, of course -- by 1.4 percent in number since 2000 -- as death claims some, especially in the older brackets.

But their numbers are growing in 12 states, including South Dakota, which registered a 1 percent increase in boomer numbers from 2000 to 2007,

according to the Population Reference Bureau in Washington, D.C.

In the same period, North Dakota showed one of the sharpest declines in people age 44 to 62, a drop of 6 percent.

"There are a couple of things going on in North Dakota that may support that," said Richard Rathge, the state demographer, who cautions that he hasn't seen the baby boomer numbers and can't vouch for their accuracy.

"We have the loss of young adults, which includes the trailing edge of the baby boomers," he said. "We may be exporting some of those people" in their mid-40s, as well as numbers of 20- and 30-somethings.

"Also, at the leading (older) edge, there's a high proportion of those who retire out of here," Rathge said. "Typically, we see them retire to what are called 'amenity locations,' for example, to the mountains of Wyoming and Colorado."

In a report published recently by the Population Reference Bureau on its Web site, researchers said that "many older people, when they reach retirement age, prefer to live in areas with lower housing costs, less traffic and more natural amenities."

The states registering the biggest influx of boomers were Nevada, Arizona, Florida and Idaho, according to the report.

Minnesota, like North Dakota, showed a decline in boomer population -- a 1.7 percent drop overall and a 4.9 percent decline in older boomers, according to study author Mark Mather of the Population Reference Bureau.

"South Dakota isn't that different from North Dakota," said Rathge, director of the State Data Center in Fargo and a professor at North Dakota State University. "But North Dakota is just starting to recognize the value of amenities" in attracting people to relocate from busier, more crowded places to more open country.

"Eco-tourism is starting to catch on here, and we're rich in wide open spaces," he said. "You'll see developers taking advantage of that and doing more to attract people."

In just two years, about 1.8 million boomers nationwide will turn 65, Rathge said, or about 5,000 a day. In North Dakota, their steady departure from the work force and the continuing youth drain will pose a considerable challenge for a state already struggling with a labor shortage.

One population category where North Dakota leads the nation: the proportion of seniors 85 and older.

"Many of those people who leave for the 'amenity locations' when they retire -- they come back," Rathge said. "When you lose some of your mobility and need more frequent health care, your priorities change. You come back to the old communities and for informal care by family members or friends."

For more information, log on to the Population Reference Bureau at www.prb.org. (The baby boomer report is at www.prb.org/Articles/2008/

usbabyboomers.aspx).

The Census Bureau is at www.census.gov.

Reach Haga at (701) 780-1102; (800) 477-6572, ext. 102; or send e-mail to chaga@gfherald.com.

Newstex ID: KRTB-0074-26572405