'Outward trickle' shows no signs of ending

By Ken Newton, Ray Scherer

Jun. 8, 2008 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex)

-- ALBANY, Mo. -- Gene Hogue remains optimistic his son will carry on the small-town business that has kept him active in Gentry County for the past 35 years.

Mr. Hogue owns Hogue Lumber Company in Albany, an enterprise that involves his son Matt. A decision to return home could spell longevity for the family business.

"He graduated from MU, liked the small town, and came back," Mr. Hogue said. "That's the plan, anyway. That he'll take over."

The Hogues could represent one possible antidote to a trend saddling a number of Northwest Missouri counties this decade. The U.S. Census Bureau reports more deaths than births in eight counties between 2000 and 2007, a natural population decrease that shows no sign of ending.

Gentry County experienced a net loss of 109 people in deaths-to-births accounting, among the four worst counties in the region. Livingston County had 183 more people die than were born in the period, while Atchison County stood at minus 152 and Grundy County hit minus 122.

Those who watch such population trends aren't surprised by the numbers.

"This has been going on for decades in northern Missouri," said John G. Blodgett of the Missouri Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis. "It's been that slow outward trickle."

In short, the younger people move away and don't come back. The remaining population consists of older residents. In Gentry County, for example, the Census Bureau reports the median age as 40 years, five years older than a suburban county such as Clay and the national average.

Rex Campbell, a rural sociologist at the University of Missouri, said changing demographics -- what he calls "aging-in-place communities" -- put a strain on the resources of out-state counties.

"One, you don't have the young leadership that you need," Dr. Campbell said, "and two, there is a considerable demand for health care and other things for this aging population."

Gentry County leaders decline to be victimized by the trend, however. Various programs in Albany are attempting to retain the city's younger population -- and senior citizens -- to form the base for future growth.

"We have launched a campaign to recruit more young professionals and retirees," said Kathy Morgan, Albany's economic development director. "We're interested in both populations."

The city has identified gaps in local services and will next consider recruitment to eliminate the losses. In one example, Ms. Morgan said patients must travel to doctors elsewhere since Albany no longer has an optometrist.

Northwest Medical Center recently has increased its outpatient services, she added.

More residents have been drawn to Albany by the lure of jobs at the hospital, the Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI) plant and the GHS Manufacturing paper tube plant, Ms. Morgan said.

The traditional battle between large and small business is in play in the community.

"I hear, 'There are so many new people in town,'" Ms. Morgan said of the industries' impact. "I also hear the other side of it ... what to do for our Mom and Pop shops."

The Small Business Development Center at Northwest Missouri State University is working with Albany. Windstream, the city's communications provider, plans to install a fiber optic network to improve Internet access for business and industry.

Such efforts resist a powerful momentum. Mr. Blodgett said most times a rural county reverses the trend by no longer being rural.

"Like Warren and Lincoln counties (near St. Louis), they used to be rural 20 years ago but they have become suburban," he said.

People like Mr. Hogue realize that the average age of a small community's business leaders is advancing, so turning to youth and their fresh ideas could serve better in the long run.

"It's probably more for me than for him," he said of the anticipated handover to his son. "It's harder to sell a lumber company in a small town.

"This is my hometown."

Ray Scherer can be reached at rscherer@npgco.com. Ken Newton can be reached at kenn@npgco.com.

Newstex ID: KRTB-0283-25837687