Democrats worry gender, race split will put nominee at risk: Party fears anger in loser's backers could cost election

By Todd Spangler

WASHINGTON, Mar. 23, 2008 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) --
Norma Woods of Eastpointe and Democrats like her could become the party's worst nightmare.

A mother of seven, a grandmother of 15, Woods said she's a loyal Democrat and a Hillary Clinton supporter.

But if Barack Obama wins the party's presidential nomination, Woods said she may sit out the November election.

"Only one time I didn't vote," said Woods, who wouldn't reveal her age. "I was busy having a baby."

November is a long way off, and Woods is leaving room to change her mind. Still, she represents a conundrum Democrats must face. It's the possibility of alienating one of the party's two key bases of support: African Americans, who have rallied behind Obama, or white women in the party, who polls show have thrown their support solidly behind Clinton.

Anger one or the other enough, say pollsters, academics and election experts, and the party risks depressing Democratic vote totals enough in November to make presumptive Republican nominee John McCain the 44th president.

The concern is unlikely to go away soon with the race for the nomination so close. On Friday, two new polls -- one from Gallup, one from Rasmussen -- showed Clinton and Obama in a statistical dead heat among Democratic voters nationwide. Until this week, Obama had led for about a month.

"There is a definite sense of entitlement in both camps that they've earned it and it's theirs," said Vincent Hutchings, an associate professor at the University of Michigan's Center for Political Studies. "There's a lot of bad blood between these camps."

It could represent a split the party can't afford, but one that polls show is real. Consider:

--Obama's lead over Clinton among blacks nationally was nearly 5-1 in Gallup Poll surveys taken during the first two weeks of March. Clinton's lead among white women who are Democrats or lean Democratic was not as big, 58% to 33%, but it was impressive considering the enormity of that voting bloc nationally.

--Though more than 70% of African Americans identify themselves as Democrats, support for Clinton among African Americans in a general election against McCain slipped to 61% -- with many suggesting they'd vote for a third party or stay home, pollster Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports said Friday.

--In head-to-head matchups with McCain, Rasmussen's latest survey shows that both Democratic candidates lag among all white women, including independents and Republicans. Clinton gets 41% and Obama 38%. McCain gets 51% against each candidate.

The numbers certainly will bounce until November -- as they have in recent months.

Campaign trail developments all will have an effect, like the controversy over anti-American remarks made by Obama's former pastor and Obama's response; the failed call by Clinton supporters for a Michigan do-over primary, and questions about Clinton's support for the North American Free Trade Agreement. So will results from upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and elsewhere.

Voters who say they will stay home -- or vote for someone else -- could change their minds.

Despite the caveats, Rasmussen said an undercurrent of anger exists. "It's not the poll numbers. ... It's the way the Democratic nomination is resolved," he said. "There needs to be a clear ending that strikes rank-and-file Democrats as fair."

Both sides are frustrated

Clinton supporters like Woods are frustrated because they say she is more electable and has been treated unfairly by the news media.

In February, a "Saturday Night Live" skit with reporters fawning over Obama made that point, possibly boosting Clinton.

Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, said it's not Obama per se who's fueling some women's frustration, but the feeling that a woman is being passed over for a man -- of any race.

"It's about women ... having an experience in their lives where they've been treated unfairly," Bystrom said.

Clinton supporters can point to her primary wins in big states like California, Texas and Ohio.

But Obama has a nearly insurmountable lead in the popular vote and has won more states. And Clinton can't catch him in pledged delegates based on remaining primaries. That fuels strong feelings among Obama's supporters that he has earned the nomination, particularly after the Clinton camp suggested he could be her vice president.

"Do you think we'd be having this conversation" about Clinton as Obama's vice president? asked state Sen. Tupac Hunter, a Detroit Democrat who cochairs Obama's Michigan campaign.

Bystrom said she believes white women could bolt to McCain if they feel disaffected but that black people will vote en masse for the Democratic nominee, whoever it is.

Not so fast, Hunter said.

Don't take African Americans for granted, he said, or "they're not going to be there."

More hurt feelings likely

So the question facing the party is how to make everyone happy -- or at least united.

It could be a tall order.

Although Clinton can't catch Obama in pledged delegates, he can't win the nomination outright in the remaining primaries.

That is likely to leave the final decision in the hands of the superdelegates -- party officials and elected leaders beholden to no candidate -- before or during the August convention.

If it takes that long and a fight breaks out at the convention, even more feelings could be hurt.

As usual, it will come down to politics, said Ronald Walters, director of the African American Leadership Center at the University of Maryland. He said he expects superdelegates who haven't committed to a candidate to wait to see who has momentum.

The next questions are whether the loser will exit gracefully and how angry the loser's supporters will be. Some may vote for McCain or stay home.

The nomination may come down to this, Walters said: Which voting bloc can the party less afford to alienate?

The Rev. Nicholas Hood III of Plymouth United Church of Christ in Detroit is backing Obama. If Clinton wins, he said he would support her. But he has heard some say they won't.

"I think the party has to be very careful," he said.

Contact TODD SPANGLER at 202-906-8203 or at tspangler@freepress.com.

Newstex ID: KRTB-0048-23964607