Source: Washington Post | November 4, 2009
Chris Cillizza
1. The topline numbers in New Jersey and Virginia are, by now, familiar to any political junkie. We dug into the exit polls in both states for some inside information about the political landscape. A few nuggets: suburban voters moved to Republicans (55 percent to 44 percent in Virginia; 51 percent to 43 percent in New Jersey), voters who said the economy was the top issue went to former Virginia attorney general Bob McDonnell (R) by 14 points but to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by 22, Obama approval/disapproval was 49 percent/50 percent in Virginia and 57/42 in New Jersey, and among voters 65 and older McDonnell won by 18 points and former U.S. attorney Chris Christie (R) won by 15.
2. Bob McDonnell pollster Glen Bolger explains how his candidate won so big. Key quotes: "Our goal back in last winter/spring was to tie on the top issue of jobs/economy, stay close on transportation and education, and win on tax/spending." Also: "Deeds never defined himself. . . . Rather than first define Deeds, they just decided to hit Bob as a right-wing woman hater with ties to Pat Robertson." And: "A lot of the GOP definitional messaging of Deeds was using Deeds against himself. His bumbling performance in the post-debate press gaggle was legendary."
3. A county-by-county look at how Christie won from the New York Times. Of note is that Corzine only won Bergen County 49 percent to 48 percent (not a large enough margin), Christie crushed Corzine in Ocean County (66 percent to 29 percent), and independent Chris Daggett only broke into double digits in a handful of counties (best showing was in Somerset with 11 percent).
4. With Bill Owens ' (D) victory in the New York 23rd district special election that makes five straight wins in contested specials over the past two years for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In 2008, the DCCC won in Illinois' 14th, Louisiana's 6th and Mississippi's 1st. This year, Rep. Scott Murphy (D) won in New York's 20th. A very impressive record in tough-to-figure-out specials.
5. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg won -- but just barely when you consider he outspent New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson at a 20-1 clip (no, that is not a typo) during the campaign. The White House was reluctant to get behind Thompson throughout the campaign and did far less for him than they did in New Jersey, Virginia and even New York's 23rd district. Given the narrownness of the Bloomberg win, do White House strategists look back on this race as a missed opportunity? Or is the uber-rich (and Democrat in everything but name) Bloomberg a better ally for the White House in the long term?
And in non-2009 election news. . .
6. The 60 Plus Association, a conservative-aligned group in the health care fight, will begin a $500,000 national cable television buy this morning urging Congress not to cut Medicare in the name of cost containment for health reform legislation. The ad begins by noting that seniors had stormed the beaches at Normandy in World War II and survived the Great Depression before the narrators adds: "But now, some in Washington want up to $500 billion in Medicare cuts to pay for a plan that could lead to a government takeover of health care." The 60 Plus ad will be supplemented by phone calls into 78 House districts urging listeners to call their members and urge them to oppose Medicare cuts. And, the campaign follows more than $2 million in spending by the group over the last two weeks with ads targeting eight senators on the issue. "As yesterday's elections prove, seniors are upset. Seniors are taking a stand and saying 'Don't cut our Medicare,'" said Jim Martin, president of the organization. Expect other conservative organizations to attempt to capitalize on the election results to raise doubts in moderate Democrats' minds about the health care bill.
7. Florida state Sen. Paula Dockery formally entered the governor's race Tuesday, ensuring that state Attorney General Bill McCollum will have a fight on his hands for the Republican nod. McCollum, who has run and lost two Senate races already this decade, is running even in polling with state CFO Alex Sink who has cleared the Democratic primary. Dockery, who hails from central Florida, has held state legislative office since the mid 1990s. And, while the Republican establishment believes McCollum is their best option against Sink, Dockery is a serious candidate who will, at a minimum, force McCollum to spend some of his money in a primary. Did we mention McCollum raised about half as much as Sink in the past three months?
8. "The ambitious Rothman, on 2013: 'If there's an opportunity to help the people of the entire state someday, I'd certainly consider that.'" -- Real Clear Politics' Mike Memoli tweets on Rep. Steve Rothman (D-N.J.) already positioning for a challenge to Christie. Other names in the mix: Reps. John Adler and Frank Pallone, Sen. Bob Menendez, and, the potential prime mover in the race, Newark Mayor Cory Booker.
9. Last names aren't everything in politics. Just ask the son of Pittsburgh Steelers great Franco Harris; he came in a not-close second in his bid to unseat Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl on Tuesday.
10. AT&T thinks "there's a map for that" is a ripoff.
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